NBA Marketwatch Edition 4 2009-10

SportsMarketwatch
NBA Edition
11/18/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the NBA edition of Sports Marketwatch, wherethe Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans an unprecedented glimpse into the NBApoint-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happeningon the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!Initially, the NBA Edition of Sports Marketwatch will be a weekly columnpublished on Wednesdays, normally around 5PM, Eastern Time.

The staff at SportsInsights.com analyzes the marketplace, and especially thesports betting industry’s largest and most reputable sportsbooks, to identifywhich games the public is chasing and which ones the Sharps are pounding. Let’stake a look at what’s in store for tonight’s NBA games.

SportsMarketplace – NBA Edition

Last Wednesday, Marketwatch once again trudged through a 1-for-2 night.  Wefelt close to a breakthrough with the Knicks, as they were leading the Hawks54-47 at home at the half.  Perhaps predictably, they were outscored 37-23in the 3rd quarter en route to missing the cover more than twice over,ultimately losing 114-101.  In our other featured game, Utah’s DeronWilliams decided at the last minute to gut it out and play.  His toughnessis beyond question, but his efficiency on this night was poor.  No Jazzplayer scored more than 13 points as Boston took the victory and the cover105-86.

2009-10 NBA Games to Watch: 2-4, 33.3%*
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports Marketwatch 11/18/09 – Games to Watch

San Antonio Spurs +1.5 over Dallas Mavericks

Last week, a Spurs team lacking its two key players – Tim Duncan and TonyParker – took on the Mavericks in San Antonio and came out on the good side,92-83.  Tonight, they’ll bring a full-strength squad to Dallas for anotherre-hashing of last year’s playoff series.  The Mavs, for their own part,have been taking care of business, winning three in a row on the road againstless-talented teams.  They’ll likely be without defensive force ErickDampier due to an illness, but Shawn Marion’s ankle injury is not as severe aspreviously imagined.  He should be ready to match-up with Spurs’ wingmenRichard Jefferson and Manu Ginobili.

Dallas, a tough team to beat in the friendly confines of American AirlinesCenter, opened as 2-point favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle.  The publicseems to remember the thrashing the Mavs gave the Spurs last postseason, backingthem with 72% of spread bets, as well as 80% of moneyline and 71% of parlaywagers.  The bookmakers, however, did not feel cooperative, moving the linefor some time this afternoon all the way down to a pick ‘em.  SportsInsights Betting Systems identified the reason, a Steam Move triggered byearly-season standout ABC (+14.9 Units Won).  Heavy betting on Dallas haspushed the line back to -1.5 at a number of books, and we believe there’s valueto be had there.  Play on the former champs as they try and re-establishthemselves as the team to beat in Texas.

San Antonio +1.5

Portland Trail Blazers -10 over Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are playing some gutsy basketball at the moment, having been withoutarguably their two best players – Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince – for anumber of early games.  Key offseason additions Charlie Villanueva and BenGordon have had to pick up the slack, and they’ve done so admirably, leadingDetroit to a record of 5-6 despite a difficult early schedule.  Their lackof depth, however, is beginning to catch up with them, with first-teamersgetting tired and very little experience behind them.  Portland, on theother hand, is quite possibly the deepest team in the NBA.  Bringing RudyFernandez, Martel Webster and Joel Pryzbilla “Vanilla Godzilla” off the benchgives the Blazers a scoring and rebounding presence that most squad’s backupssimply don’t have.  Portland’s only losses have come at the hands ofAtlanta, Houston and Denver, and they’re coming home tonight to the Rose Gardenafter a 4-1 road trip.

Portland opened as 11-point favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle.  Thepublic appears to have paid very close attention to Portland’s loss at Atlanta,supporting Detroit with 65% of spread bets.  We like to take a contrarianapproach here, so we don’t mind that the public support has pushed the line downacross the board.  Even more than that, we’re pleased to see both SmartMoney and Steam Moves on Portland, most notably a Steam Move from ABC (+14.9).We’re willing to play on the rejuvenated Greg Oden and friends taking it to theshort-handed Pistons at home.  Look closely and you may find a couple ofbetter numbers on the board.  We see a 10 at BetUS.

Portland -10 (BetUS)

Games to Watch: 2-4 = 33.3%
San Antonio +1.5
Portland -10 (BetUS)

It should be an exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep SportsMarketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for thelatest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.We’ll be back next Wednesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch –NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com