9/8/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Last edition was a big bounceback for Marketwatch, as we hit on both games and added a stout 2.92 units to our season profit. Cincinnati got one RBI each from the middle third of its order, and Bronson Arroyo stifled the Braves offense, holding them to only a Nate McLouth solo home run en route to a 3-1 Reds victory. In our other matchup, the Astros jumped on Cliff Lee early, chasing last year’s AL Cy Young after only three innings. Wandy Rodriguez had a Vegas-worthy performance for Houston, throwing 7 innings of 7-hit baseball with 7 strikeouts. Not surprisingly, the Astros beat the Phillies 7-0.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 41-43, 48.8%, +13.3 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Seattle Mariners +109 over Los Angeles Angels
Oftentimes, sports analysts spend years and years waiting on a promising player to “put it all together.” They’re looking for a guy to add to his natural talent some combination of poise, execution, consistency and leadership. Seattle starter Felix Hernandez – given the lofty moniker “King Felix” at a young age – decided that, although still just 23-years-old, he was sick of the waiting game. Now in his 4th full season, he’s making a serious bid at the AL Cy Young award. His 2.65 ERA, 14 wins and 185 strikeouts certainly merit such consideration. His counterpart, Scott Kazmir, has had a tougher go of it, battling injury for the first half of the season. After being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, he seems to have found a bit of consistency. Over his last four starts, he has averaged 6+ innings and 7+ strikeouts with only 2 earned runs.
The Angels opened as -130 favorites at CRIS. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets and a whopping 93% of runline wagers, the line has dropped to -123 at CRIS and even lower across the board. This reverse line movement may seem surprising, but it comes as a result of a Steam Move triggered at Bet Jamaica. Steam Moves from this Caribbean book are up +17.8 units for the season, making it one of our best performers. We love the opportunity to take an elite pitcher against the public and get plus-odds, so we’re going to play on the Mariners tonight.
Seattle Mariners +109 (Grande/Bodog)
San Diego Padres +240 over San Francisco Giants
It only takes a quick look at the NL West standings to see that the Giants are a better baseball team than the Padres. In tonight’s game, however, we think they’re being disrespected. Padres starter Kevin Correia can’t boast the gaudy stats of last year’s NL Cy Young Tim Lincecum, but he can certainly flummox an offense on any given night. In the past month alone, Correia has thrown 6+ shutout innings against the Mets, Cubs and Nationals. Are the Giants better than those teams? Of course. But they are also certainly aware that, when the Padres leave town, their next nine games are against the two NL West foes they are chasing for a playoff spot, the Dodgers and Rockies. That very nearly makes what looks like a lopsided match-up on paper a must-have game. In pressure situations, we like to go with veterans and away from guys who get carded when they want to buy a drink.
Lincecum’s numbers do make him awfully difficult to bet against, and only 13% of the public has been willing to do it thus far today. With 87% of moneyline and parlay bets coming down on San Francisco, you’d expect the opening line of -270 at CRIS to have grown significantly. Instead, it has stayed very steady and even dropped at a few books. Sports Insights Betting Systems are hammering the perceived value in this match-up, and we have plays triggered by two of our favorite books. This morning, a Smart Money play came through from CRIS (+10.18 Units Won) as well as a Steam Move from Pinnacle (+19.9 Units Won). The track records of these books in finding value over the years speak for themselves, and we aren’t about to miss a game when they work hand-in-hand.
San Diego Padres +240 (Pinnacle/Grande)
Games to Watch (41-43, +13.3 units)
Seattle Mariners +109
San Diego Padres +240
It should be another exciting night in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com