8/28/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
The Rangers were able to hold off a ninth inning Yankee comeback Tuesday, scoring a 10-9 victory and getting Marketwatch off to great start for the week. New York scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth inning before Elvis Andrus snagged a Melky Cabrera line drive and turned an unassisted double play to end the game. In Game 2, Carlos Pena’s four RBI powered the Rays to a 7-3 win, handing Toronto the loss and giving Marketwatch a split for the day. Even though we went 1-1, Texas was huge underdog to New York, allowing Markewatch to add .85 units to our season total.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 39-39, 50.0%, +14.38 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Chicago White Sox +203 over New York Yankees
In Friday’s first game, Chicago’s Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.92 ERA) faces off against New York’s CC Sabathia (15-7, 3.59 ERA) as the Yankees ace goes for his sixth straight win in the month of August. Over his last five starts, Sabathia has a 2.65 ERA, with 39 strikeouts in 37.1 innings pitched. Buehrle, who threw a perfect game on July 23 against Tampa Bay, has a 0-4 record and a 6.21 ERA since his history making performance. The White Sox have won three out of four games against the Yankees this season and hope to extend that streak as they fight to erase Detroit’s four-game lead in the AL Central.
New York opened as -235 favorites at CRIS and have shrunk to -230. The public is heavily behind the favorites with 63% of moneyline bets and 83% of parlay wagers currently backing the Yankees. Based on the percentages, the line should have grown, but instead shrunk. This reverse-line movement hints there is sharp money backing the Sox. In fact, a Smart Money Play on the White Sox was triggered at BetMania, who are +4.67 units on the season. We’re following the reverse-line movement and Smart Money, and are going with the heavy underdogs in this game.
Chicago White Sox +203 (ABC)
Colorado Rockies +117 over San Francisco Giants
The Rockies, who currently lead the Giants by three games in the NL Wild Card standings, begin a crucial three-game set with San Francisco tonight. Both teams have to feel confident, as aces Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) square off in tonight’s matchup. Lincecum has struggled against Colorado recently, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts against their NL West rivals. Conversely, Jimenez, who has won each of his last five starts, has been stellar against the Giants, posting a 3-1 record and a 2.09 ERA in his last seven starts against San Francisco.
San Francisco opened at -135 at Pinnacle and currently sit as -120 favorites. Similar to our first game, the public is heavily backing the home team (72% runline, 68% moneyline, 70% parlay), yet the line has moved in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. Steam Moves were also triggered on Colorado at both Pinnacle (+21.6 units) and Phoenix (+17.8 units). We have confidence in Steam Moves from both of these sportsbooks and will take Colorado in our second game.
Colorado +117 (Matchbook)
Games to Watch (39-39, +14.38 units)
Chicago White Sox +203 (ABC)
Colorado Rockies +117 (Matchbook)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com