MLB Marketwatch Edition 40 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
8/25/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

In Friday’s edition of Marketwatch, we took Boston, getting plus money, at home against New York. The Red Sox pounded the Yankees pitching, scoring 11 runs in the series opener. Unfortunately for the Sox, and Marketwatch, the Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname and hammered Boston starter Brad Penny, out slugging the Red Sox to a 20-11 victory. In our second game, Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir kept a formidable Texas lineup in check, giving up three earned runs in 7.1 innings. Ben Zobrist and Carlos Pena provided the offense for the Rays, hitting back-to-back homeruns in the 5th inning en route to a 5-3 win.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 38-38, 50.0%, +13.53 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Texas Rangers +185 over New York Yankees

In today’s first game, the Rangers send Kevin Millwood (9-8, 3.48 ERA) to the mound to take on the Yankees and starter Joba Chamberlain (8-3, 3.98 ERA). In an attempt to limit the his innings, the Yankees have not started Chamberlain since August 16th. With the extra time off, Chamberlain has made only three starts this month, posting a 6.75 ERA while walking 12 batters in 16 innings. Like Chamberlain, Millwood struggled in his last appearance, but has pitched very well against the Yankees, posting a 2.84 ERA in his last five starts against New York.

New York opened as -173 favorites at Pinnacle and have grown to -192. The public is backing New York, with 93% of runline bets, 56% of moneyline and 66% of parlay wagers currently on the Yankees. This, in turn, has pushed the Rangers all the way to +185. That is a very big number for a team with the fourth best record in the American League, so we’ll take Texas in this game.

Texas Rangers +185 (Sportsbook)

Toronto Blue Jays +131 over Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has won seven of their last ten games, and take on Toronto tonight as they try to chip away at the three game deficit they face in the race for the AL Wild Card. The Rays give the ball to starter James Shields (7-10, 3.81 ERA), who is 1-5 with a 4.44 ERA over his last 11 starts. Shields has faced Toronto three times this season, posting an 0-2 record in those starts. Toronto counters with rookie Brett Cecil (5-2, 4.58 ERA), who gave up one run and four hits in seven innings of work on July 26, his only career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay opened as -155 favorites at CRIS and have shrunk to -145. This line movement would suggest that the public is behind Toronto. On the contrary, 62% of moneyline bets and 66% of parlay wagers are currently on the Rays. This reverse-line movement suggests there is some sharp money on the Jays. Also, a steam move backing Toronto was triggered at Pinnacle, who are +28.50 units on the season. In this game, we have both reverse-line movement and a positive steam move, and are going against the public to back a home team receiving plus money. We like to see all of this, and therefore are taking Toronto.

Toronto Blue Jays +131 (Matchbook)

Games to Watch (38-38, +13.53 units)
Texas Rangers +185 (Sportsbook)
Toronto Blue Jays +131 (Matchbook)

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com