8/14/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
Randy Wolf pitched very well in Tuesday’s first game, giving up only one run in eight innings of work. Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp drove in six of the Dodgers’ nine runs, handing San Francisco a 9-1 defeat. Game two saw the Braves’ Tommy Hanson shut down a white hot Nationals team that came into the game as winners of eight straight. Chipper Jones provided the offense for Atlanta, scoring twice while going 2 for 4 at the dish, including a 7th inning homerun. The Braves’ bullpen put the finishing touches on an 8-1 victory by striking out four and giving up only one hit in the final 2.1 innings.
Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.
2009 MLB Games to Watch: 37-33, 52.9%, +17.42 units
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch
Kansas City Royals +114 over Detroit Tigers
Since being traded from Seattle, Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 3.12 ERA) has struggled as a starter in Detroit. In his first two starts as a member of the Tigers, Washburn has given up 16 hits and 11 earned runs and tonight will face-off against Zack Greinke, the AL Leader in ERA. Like Washburn, Greinke (11-7, 2.43 ERA) has had his own issues lately, recording only one win since scoring his 10th victory of the season in late June against Pittsburgh.
Detroit opened as -104 favorites at Pinnacle and have since grown to -119. The public is heavily behind the Tigers with 91% of runline bets, 74% of moneyline bets and 68% of parlay wagers currently backing Detroit. A Smart Money play on Kansas City was triggered at 5Dimes, who are +3.93 units on the season. A Steam Move was also triggered, this by Pinnacle, who are +39.08 units this season. When a book with Pinnacle’s record moves, Marketwatch follows, and will take the Royals in this game.
Kansas City +114 (Catalina/VegasVic)
Houston Astros +125 over Milwaukee Brewers
In Marketwatch’s second game, Houston and Wandy Rodriguez (11-6, 2.51 ERA) head to Miller Park to take on Milwaukee and Yovani Gallardo (10-9, 3.54 ERA). Rodriguez has been stellar in his last seven starts, posting a 5-0 record with a 0.77 ERA over that stretch. He has been equally impressive against the Brewers, winning both of his starts against Milwaukee this season, while giving up only one run in 14 innings. The Brewers will counter with Gallardo, who has also experienced success against tonight’s opponent. In five career starts against the Astros, Gallardo is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA, although both of those losses came this season in matchups against Rodriguez.
Milwaukee opened as -145 favorites at CRIS and have shrunk to -128. The Brewers are big runline favorites, garnering 74% of those bets and are slight moneyline favorites, currently receiving 51% of those wagers. One of our basic strategies at Marketwatch is to bet against the public, and in this game the public is backing Milwaukee, so we’re taking Houston.
Houston +125 (Matchbook)
Games to Watch (37-33, +17.42 units)
Kansas City Royals +114
Houston Astros +125
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back Tuesday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com