MLB Marketwatch Edition 3 2009

Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
4/14/2009 5:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5 PM Eastern Time.

Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition

The Orioles allowed nine hits, including three home runs, but they also banged out 11 hits of their own against Tampa Bay. Melvin Mora had three RBIs to lead the Orioles to a victory over the defending AL Champion Rays, which gave us our third win of the early season. Jered Weaver had a superb outing against the Red Sox to give the Angels an emotional win in their first game after the death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart. The Boston loss was our first of the season.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 3-1, 75%, +2.23 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

Oakland Athletics +128 over Boston Red Sox

The Athletics came into the season hoping they had improved their offense enough to compete in the AL West. Newcomers Matt Holliday, Nomar Garciaparra, and prodigal son Jason Giambi got the job down on Monday as they sparked Oakland to an 8-2 win over AL East heavyweight Boston. The Red Sox haven’t been able to get anything on track early in the 2009 season. The only two regulars with batting averages above .240 are Kevin Youkilis (.519) and Jason Bay (.286). Their starting pitching has also struggled, and right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka will look to bounce back from allowing 4 earned runs in just 5.1 innings in his first start of 2009.

The public tends to give great value to Red Sox opponents, even when Boston is struggling. Matsuzaka and the Sox are receiving huge public backing with 79% of moneyline bets, 90% of runline bets, and 88% of parlay bets. Despite this strong backing, the line has moved slightly in the other direction. Boston opened as -145 favorites at Olympic, but the line has fallen to -140. The movement triggered multiple Sports Insights Betting System plays, including a Smart Money play from ABC (8-7, +3.97 units). We’ll take the home dog Athletics and the “plus money”.

Oakland Athletics +128 (Bodog)

Arizona Diamondbacks +130 over St. Louis Cardinals

Arizona will send top-prospect Max Scherzer to the mound against his hometown team in his first start of the young season. Scherzer is a high-strikeout pitcher who has a tendency to lose his control at times. He will try to stop the Diamondbacks’ three-game losing skid, while also putting an end to the Cardinals’ five-game win streak. St. Louis’ starter, Chris Carpenter, began that streak by allowing one hit over seven innings last Wednesday against Pittsburgh. Cardinals’ manager Tony LaRussa said he will limit Carpenter to seven innings regardless of his pitch count or performance.

The Cardinals are another team drawing heavy public backing tonight with 73% of moneyline bets, 71% of spread bets, and 84% of parlay bets. Carpenter’s strong first start has given confidence to the betting public, but it looks like there are some sharp bettors taking Arizona and the young flame-thrower, Scherzer. The Cardinals opened as -145 road favorites at Olympic, but the line currently sits at St. Louis -130. We’ll take another home underdog that fits the profile from our MLB and Betting Against the Public article, especially with some +130 lines still available.

Arizona Diamondbacks +130 (SIA)