Sports Betting Blog

A successful contrarian bettor typically questions conventional wisdom, and challenges widely-held beliefs. Sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they’re going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. These shaded lines create additional value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint. Squares — or casual…

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Last week in this space we utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s championship futures into an implied probability, we were able to find three schools with a positive expected value: West Virginia (+3000), Texas A&M (+4000) and Virginia (+1200). Although West…

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Every year when March Madness rolls around, most of the water cooler discussion involves the same few topics: Final Four picks, the bizarre selection methodology by significant others and favorite Cinderella picks. The NCAA Tournament seems to be defined by the huge upsets and unlikely storylines, but has this perception created contrarian value for bettors? […

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