NBA Teams of Interest
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MLB Teams of Interest
by Wesley Griffin, www.sportsinsights.com
Posted: 4/17/2009
Just like our
NBA Teams of Interest article, this article is going to examine some teams
around Major League Baseball, searching for value opportunities in the sports
betting marketplace. We will not be giving picks; however, we believe these
insights can help the prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information
to help them make a more informed decision on upcoming games. We welcome your
feedback -
contact us! Also, you can comment and subscribe to our
blog. For previous articles, please visit our
archive.
New York Yankees (5-5)
These are the giants of Major League Baseball, the titans
of the feared AL East. They have titles, tradition and a bevy of talented,
expensive players on their side; hopefully, though, they haven’t been receiving
most of your bets over the first two weeks of the season, because they simply
aren’t performing up to expectations.
At Sports Insights, we believe expectations are just as
important to consider when betting as the actual teams involved. The public
loves to bet on favorites to win, and it has tremendously high expectations of
the Yankees year in and year out. Thus far, 2009 has been no different. The
Yankees have consistently been road favorites and have now opened the new Yankee
Stadium as more than 2 to 1 favorites in both home games.
Such high odds and expectations might not be a big deal if
the Yankees were taking care of business and well on their way to pushing the
100-win mark like many bettors – and sportsbooks – projected. Instead, they are
an even .500, loitering in the middle of the “expectation-ally inverted” AL
East. CC Sabathia seems to be feeling the pressure of his gargantuan contract
and offseason diet-denial, while the combined age of heart-of-the-order guys
Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada would have qualified them for social security the
last time the Yankees made the playoffs. New York is 7th in
the American league in OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage) and 10th
in ERA, but the favorite lines are not budging.
The bottom line is this: all the money GM Brian Cashman
threw at high-profile players this winter is not likely to make you money
anytime soon. The sportsbooks and the public have not adjusted their
expectations to reflect the impact of losing A-Rod and the difficulty of
developing chemistry amongst a roster filled with superstars. Despite winning
as many games as they’ve lost, the huge lines for New York make it difficult to
profit. A bettor taking the Yankees in every game thus far would already be
down over 2 units (average line in the five games won: -150), or down over $100 for a $50 bettor. The Yankees will probably win
their fair share of games this season, but let’s continue to fade them until
they prove they can handle America’s astronomical expectations.
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