NBA Teams of Interest
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MLB Teams of Interest
by Chris Arena, www.sportsinsights.com
Posted: 4/3/2009
Just like our
NBA Teams of Interest article, this article is going to examine some teams
around Major League Baseball, searching for value opportunities in the sports
betting marketplace. We
will not be giving picks; however, we believe these insights can help the
prudent bettor looking for that extra bit of information to help them make a
more informed decision on upcoming games. We welcome your feedback -
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Early Season Series of
Interest
NY Mets at Cincinnati Reds
The opener of this series will feature Johan Santana against Aaron Harang,
most likely making the Mets a huge favorite. I would avoid this game; the
Mets will almost certainly win, but the odds will be astronomical. Games 2 and 3
of the series, however, should present some good opportunities for contrarian
investing. The Mets will likely start Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, while the
Reds will send out Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo, putting the pitching
match-up far in favor of the Reds, as far as I'm concerned. I believe
Cincinnati's offense and defense is currently very undervalued, as they lost
their best "big name" slugger, Adam Dunn, but have a wealth of young stars in
the making. As a result, I think the last two games of the series will offer
very appealing underdog lines for Cincinnati that could pay big dividends for
sports investors.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
I like the Royals to make a splash this season in the AL Central, and I think
they get started early in this series at Chicago. I like Kansas City's pitchers
(Meche, Grienke, and Davies) slightly more than Chicago's (Buehrle, Danks,
Floyd), although Davies is a major drop-off from Meche/Grienke and puts the
third game of the series in favor of Chicago in my eyes. I really like Kansas
City to take the first two games of the series for two reasons: one, as stated
above, the pitching match-up is strongly in favor of the Royals, and two, I think the
Royals' offense is more well-rounded than the White Sox, who will be heavily
reliant on the long ball to score any runs. Look for Kansas City to take at
least two out of three in what should be a low-scoring series in the south side
of Chicago.
Washington Nationals at Florida Marlins
It may be the least exciting season-opening series of the year, but I think
there is value to be had in the Washington/Florida match-up. While both teams are average at best
on the offensive side of the ball, the Marlins actually boast solid starting
pitching in Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad. The
Nationals really only have one decent starter in John Lannan, but he is more
equivalent to Volstad, the Marlins' third starter, than a legitimate ace. I get the sense that
the Marlins will be slight favorites in each game and I would be happy to take
Florida throughout this series.
LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres
The Dodgers are being picked to win the NL Pennant by many analysts, and for
good reason, but I think there will be a lot of value in fading the Dodgers
throughout this series. The Dodgers are a powerhouse on offense, but their pitching
is merely adequate, featuring a lot of injury risks and unproven youngsters. The
Padres, on the other hand, offer maybe the worst offense in baseball, but sport
a legitimate ace and a solid bullpen. Petco Park is the premier pitchers' park
in all of baseball and should help equalize the large divide between two team's
offenses. Additionally, Jake Peavy hasn't lost to the Dodgers since September
2006 and the Dodgers' third starter, Clayton Kershaw, is a 21-year-old phenom
with control problems, meaning the Padres should have a legitimate shot at
taking two games of the series.
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