Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/16/2005  2:45 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 15

NFL WEEK 14 Recap
Week 14 saw a major turnaround for the sports betting industry. All sportsbooks reported a profitable weekend – with most retaining well over 7% of their handle. Scott Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans, had this to say, “Finally the ball bounced our way.” Indy failing to cover was huge, as it broke up a ton of parlays. How they failed to cover – I have no idea. Cincinnati only winning by 3pts and Carolina losing outright broke up a lot Teasers. The sportsbooks were 7-3 in games with major decisions.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted a dismal 3-7, giving back much of their winnings from Week 13.

SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis got back to it’s winning ways, going 2-1. For the season, that makes SportsInsights.com Games to Watch 28-21= 57.1%.
View last week’s column
*source: SportsInsights.com

NFL WEEK 15 Preview
The match-ups for NFL Week 15 are rather lackluster: either good teams playing bad teams, or bad teams play bad teams. But with the playoff picture starting to materialize, there should be some intense games, as teams cling to playoff hopes and other teams look to be spoilers.

With three national TV games being played on Saturday, handle sizes will be up. I’d look for value in betting underdogs, as the sportsbooks will continue to shade lines in an attempt to recoup some revenue – and salvage something out of a dismal 2005 NFL season.

We anticipate Seattle, Indy, Carolina, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.

NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Pittsburgh vs Minnesota
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Pit vs Minn is one of the better match ups of the weekend. Pittsburgh is coming off a HUGE win over Chicago. Chicago was a must win game for them and they came through. Minnesota is a team on a roll, winning their last 6 games. I circled this game because Pittsburgh has to play on turf, inside – plus I love home dogs. I feel linemakers are taking advantage of the basic human tendency of overreacting to recent performances. Sure: Pittsburgh beat a talented Chicago Bears team, but when you look at Pittsburgh’s performance over the last month, you start to see a different picture.

Pinnacle was reporting taking Sharp action on Pittsburgh -2.5. The books I personally spoke with – all reported taking Sharp action on both sides at Pittsburgh -3. I like the fact Minnesota is a team in high gear and getting +3.5 at home.

Minnesota +3.5

Seattle vs Tennessee
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

This is one of the most lopsided bet games of the week. I’m showing upwards of 85% on the spread bets coming in on Seattle, with an incredible 95% of teasers/parlays. That’s a good indicator of a trap game. It appears I’m not the only person that thinks this. The line opened at Seattle -7.5 and despite the flood of public money on Seattle the line has moved to Seattle -7. Is there any clearer indicator of Sharp Money on Tenn? Let’s not forget Seattle is historically a horrible road team and prone to late season collapses. This game has a lot going for it: Home Dog, Sharp Action, and lopsided public opinion.

Tennessee +7.5

Cincinnati vs Detroit
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

The hardest thing about looking for line value is it’s found in betting bad teams. You need an iron stomach and unwavering belief in statistical analysis to be a good value bettor. It’s time to take our man pills and find out what the Detroit Lions are made of.

Cincinnati just barely won last week to an inferior Cleveland Browns squad. Detroit, despite their horrible record, has played a lot of teams tough. I like getting +9 points at home, and the fact the public is all over Cincinnati (88%).

Detroit +9

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 15.

Games to Watch (28-21)
Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Tennessee Titans +7.5
Detroit Lions +9

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest lines, directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com
 

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 14

NFL WEEK 13 Recap
And the hits just keep coming! NFL Week 13 continued the sportsbook march to one of their most miserable NFL seasons on record. NFL Week 13 witnessed just about every favorite covering. That’s bad news for the sportsbooks. All books reported large losses on NFL Sunday. Scott Kaminsky, head lineman at Bowmans.com, summed it up best, “It was ugly. We pretty much lost every major decision. No other year since 1983, when I started in this business, has been close to how bad this year has been.” It’s always darkest right before the dawn.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted an incredible 8-0! Yes, folks: 8-0.

SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis posted a big goose egg, going a 0-3. For the season, that makes SportsInsights.com Games to Watch 26-20= 56.5%.
View last week’s column
*source: SportsInsights.com

NFL Week 14 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

NFL WEEK 14 Preview
After back-to-back-to-back MONSTER weekends for “the Public”, the sportsbooks are shell-shocked. The betting industry is on a record pace to post the worst NFL season in well over 25 years.

I anticipate handle sizes to continue to grow. With every favorite covering last week, look for the public to continue pounding big favorites. This week is already shaping up to have 13 major decisions.

We anticipate New England, Indy, Cincinnati, and Denver to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com for real-time wagering statistics and information.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

The Buffalo Bills are a team falling apart at the seams. Why this game opened at New England –3, only the oddsmakers know. The line opened at New England –3 and, as expected, saw a huge flood of New England money. Steve Stone, line manager at Oasis, had this to say, “We opened at NE -3 and quickly retreated to -3.5. We did have a couple of Sharp accounts take Buffalo +3.5.”

Simone Noble, head lineman at Pinnacle, said he was receiving sharp action on both sides Buffalo +3 and NE -3. Public money is pushing this line to -3.5 and -4. At the time this article was published, BetUS.com was offering Buffalo +4.5. It’s gut-check time. I’m following the early Sharp money and taking Buffalo. Yes, you need a strong stomach to follow this weekly column.

Buffalo +4.5  BET Buffallo +4.5 at BetUS.com!

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Can anyone stop the “can’t miss” Colts? Jacksonville is one of the only teams remaining that actually might have a chance. “As expected, it’s been all Indy money since we posted the line,” said a 5Dimes line manager. “Indy’s been a HUGE public team all year and we see no reason why this should change.” There is little doubt that this will be one of the most lopsided-bet games of the weekend.

Simon Noble of Pinnacle has this to say, “We opened the game at Colts -7. Indy is clearly a public team and we are taking four times as many bets on them as the Jaguars. The sharps seem split on this game with some playing Indy at -7 and significantly more on Jacksonville at +7.5.” I love big home underdogs – and the fact that Pinnacle, Bowmans, and Oasis are all reporting significant Sharp action on Jacksonville.

Jacksonville +9.5

Oakland Raiders vs New York Jets
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Get the bottle of Pepto out and sit down before you read this selection. Yes, we’re once again taking the New York Jets. Regular readers know you need to have an iron stomach to follow this weekly column. It’s time to take our man pills and find out what the New York Jets are made of.

There are lots of positive indicators pointing towards the Jets. First, the Jets are home underdogs. Second, Oakland has to fly cross-country just to play in the brutal cold. Lastly, the line movements suggest Sharp action on the Jets.

The line opened at Oakland -3. The books we spoke with said they were taking large amounts of Public money on Oakland –3 – but sizeable Sharp money has come in on the Jets +3. Pinnacle has already moved to Oakland -2.5. I’m taking the New York Jets +3 and a triple shot of Pepto!

New York Jets +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 14.

Games to Watch (26-20)
Buffalo Bills +4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5
New York Jets +3

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com