Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 13
12/02/2005  11:05 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all access pass with Sports Marketplace!  Every Tuesday and Friday afternoon he speaks directly with the line managers at Pinnacle, Bowmans, 5Dimes, Carib, and Oasis about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. So far, the first five weeks of the season have produced a lot of surprises. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 13

NFL WEEK 12 Recap
The early Thanksgiving Day games proved to be a bad omen for things to come, as both home underdogs failed to cover. On Sunday, bad got worse, as Houston and Washington gave up large 4th quarter leads – both losing in OT by a touchdown. Nothing went the sportsbooks’ way in Week 12, as Favorites went 10-2. Miami beating Oakland saved most sportsbooks from possibly posting their worst NFL Sunday on record. Steve Stone, line manager at OasisCasino.com, put it best, “If Miami failed to cover, we would have been crushed.” Steve Kaminsky line manager at Bowmans echoed a similar sentiment, “Miami winning broke up a lot Teasers and Parlays and really saved the day.” At this point, the sportsbook industry is ready to put a miserable November behind them.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, “the Public” posted only their third winning weekend of the year, going 5-1.

SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continues its winning ways, posting a 2-1 record for NFL Week 12. For the season, that makes SportsInsights.com Games to Watch 26-17= 60.5%.
View last week’s column.
*source: SportsInsights.com

NFL Week 13 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

NFL WEEK 13 Preview
NFL Week 13 couldn’t come quick enough for the sportsbook industry. Look for handle sizes to increase due to exciting marquee match-ups this week. Mark my words: the public will be chasing every heavy favorite on the board this week. I’d look for value in betting underdogs, as the sportsbooks will noticeably shade lines in an attempt to recoup some revenue and salvage something out of a dismal 2005 NFL season.

We anticipate Tampa Bay, Denver, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com for real-time wagering statistics and information.

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

I’m circling this game because of the attractive betting line movement. As expected, “The Public” is all over Minnesota, fueled by the media circus surrounding the firing of Detroit Lion head football coach Steve Mariucci. The line opened at Minnesota -3 but quickly moved against the public action to Minnesota -2.5. Steve Kaminsky, line manager at Bowmans, had this to say, “We opened at Minnesota -3. I really thought we’d be moving this line to Minnesota -3.5, but to my surprise we took at lot of early sharp action on Detroit +3.”

Most of the sports betting market has reacted to the early Sharp Money and moved to Minnesota -2.5. At the time this article was published, BetUS.com was offering Detroit +3. I’m following the Sharp Money and taking Detroit +3.

Detroit +3    BET DETROIT +3 -110 at BetUS.com!

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

“As expected, it’s been all Jacksonville money since we posted the line,” said a 5Dimes line manager. “At this point, the Jacksonville/Cleveland game is shaping up to be one of our biggest decisions of the week.” I like this game for a lot of reasons, but mostly because Jax QB Byron Leftwich will not be playing. I also like the fact that “Sharp Action” is holding this line steady at 3. Steve Stone of Oasis started taking early Sharp action on Cleveland, “We opened at 3 and wrote a lot of Jacksonville tickets, then late Tuesday we had a couple of Sharp players take Cleveland +3 for the limit.”

Cleveland +3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots
View Live Stats - http://www.sportsinsights.com/top_matchups.asp

Regular readers know you need to have an iron stomach to follow this weekly column. Believe it or not, we’re once again taking the lowly New York Jets. Every week I stress line value. I believe there is significant line value on the Jets +10. This is a division rivalry. The New York Jets have nothing to lose. I’m taking the New York Jets +10 and a double shot of Pepto!

New York Jets +10

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 13.

Games to Watch (26-17)
Detroit Lions +3
Cleveland +3
New York Jets +10

It should be another wild NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketplace picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday to update you on the latest line movements directly from the top online sportsbooks.

Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
Founder
SportsInsights.com