Sports MarketWatch
NFL Week 14 - Early Moves
12/05/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's
edition of the Sports MarketWatch,
where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an
all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at
some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games
the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s
in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports
MarketWatch
– NFL Week 14
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 finally stopped the bleeding for the
sportsbooks. November was a tough month for the books but it ended
on a positive note. The New York Jets losing big against a resurgent
Denver Bronco squad and San Fran winning outright in Buffalo were
huge games for the sportsbooks. All sportsbooks reported a
positive weekend, retaining anywhere from 1% to 3% of their handle.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows
that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-4, making the Public 44-55 = 44.4% for the season.
SportsInsights.com Games
to Watch analysis
continued its downward spiral, posting yet another 1-2 record, making it
19-19-1 =
50.0% for
the season. We've slowly given back all of our
profits. This has been one of the toughest stretches for the "Games to Watch" column since
it was first published over 5 years ago. We're coming out swinging this week by
offering four plays.
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL WEEK 14
We anticipate that Tennessee, the New York Jets, Arizona, and the New England
Patriots will be
the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.
Visit SportsInsights.com
to view live wagering statistics from seven online sportsbooks.
NFL
Week 14 Sports MarketWatch
– Games to Watch
(18-18 = 50.0%)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears
After three weeks in a row -- on the road (!!) --
many people are picking the Chicago Bears to give a strong performance
at home against the 4-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bears are 6-6
but still have playoff aspirations. The Bears were beaten up on
the road last week by Minny (34-14) and three weeks ago by Tennessee
(21-14). In between these losses, the Bears easily handled a
weak St. Louis team 27-3.
Which Bear team will show up this Sunday?
The Public is betting on a strong Bear team, with SportsInsights
reporting that more than 80% of bets are landing on Chicago.
Although Jax sits in last place with their 4-8 record, they are not as
weak as St. Louis. Early "Sharp" money has been on the
Jaguars -- with the opening line moving from Chicago -7 down to
Chicago -6.5 (even with the Public getting almost all of their bets
down on Chicago). Our readers know that we like to go with the
"Smart money" and "bet against the Public."
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers
Early in the season, the Green Bay Packers and
Brett Favre dominated the NFL news headlines. All looked well for
Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers -- and the Jets and Favre early in the
season. Both teams looked like they were playoff-bound. The
Jets still look strong -- but the Packers have been slumping badly
lately.
Even so, early-season excitement is hard to
extinguish -- and the Public still loves Green Bay. The Public
loves GB in this match-up over a mediocre Houston Texan team.
Three out of every four bets are landing on the home favorite
Packers. Similar to the Jax selection above, SportsInsights'
sports marketplace tools show that "smart money" has been
taking the Houston Texans. Even though a large majority of bets
is coming down on GB, the line has actually decreased from the GB -6.5
opener to the current -6. Some 5.5's are popping up -- so we
would advise grabbing Houston +6 while you can.
Houston Texans +6
New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers
Before last week's surprising loss to Denver,
some people had the Jets and Giants as two of the best teams in the
NFL. Many people are shrugging off last week's loss -- and still
think the Jets are one of the league's elite teams. Indeed,
almost 90% of all bets are taking the visiting Jets as slight
favorites over the 49ers. Three-and-a-half points doesn't seem
like much, right? Especially for one of the league's best teams
against a 4-8 team that is just 2-4 at home! That's what most
bettors think.
This game falls into the "Pepto Bismol"
category. We say "Bet against the public" and take the
"ugliest-looking" game on the board. Take your shot of
Pepto and know that "contrarian value" is on your side in
the long-run. The overwhelming number of bets on the Jets has
pushed the line up to SF +4. We like that extra value on the
"key-four" number.
San Francisco 49ers +4
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Carolina Panthers
Our offshore contacts circled this game because
"sharp money" on Carolina is causing the line to increase
slightly. The line opened at Carolina -3 -104 at Pinnacle.
Even though the majority of bets is taking TB Bucs, the line has
actually moved in the other direction. It's actually now MORE
expensive (-3 -115) to bet on Carolina even with the majority of the
Public betting on TB.
We'll join the "smart money" as usual
-- and grab the -3 now -- in case the "big money" drives the
line up to -3.5. This should be a great game -- and we'll take
Carolina at home in what should be -- a great game.
Carolina -3
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games
to Watch:
Games to Watch
(18-18 = 50.0%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
- Houston Texans +6
- San Francisco 49ers +4
- Carolina -3
It should be another exciting NFL
Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com
for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing
tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
- Daniel Fabrizio
- President
- SportsInsights.com