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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 8
10/26/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 8
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 7 only had a couple of big decisions for the
sportsbooks. It seems the league parity is making it tough for
sports bettors to pound favorites, since every Sunday most of
the favorites fail to cover. The big decisions were on the
Sunday Night game which went the way of sportsbooks, and the
Monday Night game which went the way of The Public. Most
sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday. The Monday Night
decision wiped out some of Sunday’s gains. But Indy winning in a
blowout and the game failing to go over helped break up a lot of
Teaser and Parlay action which helped the sportsbooks stay
positive for the week.
The Public posted their sixth consecutive losing week.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of
the action on one side, the Public went 2-2. Remember when you
factor in “the juice”, going .500 is losing. For the season that
makes the Public 23-32-4 = 42.5%. SportsInsights.com Games to
Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-0-1 last
weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 12-8-1 =
60.0%.
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
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Looking Ahead to this Week
NFL Week 8 is shaping up to have some major decisions. We
anticipate Indy, NY Giants, San Diego, and New Orleans to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to
remain strong as the Public continues to pound Indy and the NY
Giants. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering
statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Odds makers at the sportsbooks we contact tell us that “sharp
money” on Detroit is moving the line from Chicago -5.5 to -5.0 –
with some books moving to -4.5. SportsInsights’ exclusive
betting percentages confirm that “smart money” is on the Lions –
with about 60% of the bets coming in on Chicago – while the line
is moving in the opposite direction.
As usual, we’ll take the side of the sharps and sportsbooks –
and like to be “contrarian investors” by “Betting Against the
Public.” Detroit can put points on the board – and the Bears
just aren’t the same team they were a year or two ago.
Detroit Lions +5
Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers
We see “value” for the Carolina Panthers in several ways.
Firstly, our readers know that we like to “sell on good news.”
The Colt’s strong performance on Monday Night Football against a
strong Jacksonville team solidified the Colts as a huge “Public”
team.
At the time of writing, a whopping 90% of bets were coming in on
the Colts. Huge public money has moved the line from Indy -6 to
-7 in some places. It is possible that we could see -7.5 at game
time. That’s HUGE value: 1 or 1.5 points – right at a key number
of 7.
Another factor that could come into play is that Carolina is
coming off a “bye” week – while Indy played on Monday (and has a
short week). We’ll grab the value!
Carolina Panthers +7
(SportsInteraction.com)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Bucs
In this match-up, we see value in “buying on bad news.” The
Jacksonville Jaguars had a poor showing on Monday Night
Football. As a result, the Public is betting against Jax. 60% of
the bets are coming in on Tampa Bay.
Even so, the line moved from TB -5 to -3.5. This is a tell-tale
sign that sharps are also buying Jax on bad news. Jax is
a physical team built to run the football. Running the football
will help rookie QB Quinn Gray in the absence of QB David
Garrard. We’ll buy Jax on bad news and join the smart money.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4
(5Dimes.com)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 8.
Games to Watch (12-8-1)
Detroit Lions +5
Carolina Panthers +7 (SportsInteraction.com)
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 (5Dimes.com)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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