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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 7
10/19/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 6 was flat for the sports betting industry with most
sportsbooks reporting retaining less than 1% of their handle. A
couple of big decisions Arizona, Tampa, and Minnesota went the
sportsbook way, while the Public was helped out by Philly, New
England continuing to roll, and given a gift in the form of the
New York Giants pounding Atlanta on Monday Night Football.
The Public posted their fifth consecutive losing week.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of
the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. Remember when you
factor in “the juice”, going .500 is losing. For the season that
makes the Public 21-30-4 = 41.1%. SportsInsights.com Games to
Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, posting another
2-1 weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 10-8
= 55.6%.
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Washington, New England, Pittsburg, and Indy to be
the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes
to remain strong as the Public continues to pound Indy and New
England…and any team playing Arizona, Atlanta, Miami, or
Buffalo…proving once again its not how you’re playing, it’s who
your playing. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering
statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
Even with about two out of every three bets coming in on
Baltimore, the line is weakening on the key number of -3. The
opening line of this game was Balt -3 -111 at Pinnacle. Even
with the majority of bets on the Ravens, sharp money was moving
the line towards Buffalo.
Recent line action has Pinnacle now at only Balt -3 -105, so we
can tell that some larger, sharper, money is coming in on
Buffalo. Other factors on the Buffalo side include:
• Home Dog
• Coming off Bye week
• Buffalo has a good young QB
Buffalo Bills +3
Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys
Our sources within the sportsbook industry tell us that “sharps”
are buying the Vikings at +10 and +9.5 – moving the line down to
+9 in some places. The majority of bets are coming in on
America’s Team – but the line is STILL moving down. This is
confirmation that the big money is on the dog in this game.
Minny is coming off a big win over the Bears. In addition, the
Vikings, in rookie running back Adrian Peterson – have a
game-breaking player. The Public is on the Cowboys – but we’ll
take the side of the sportsbooks, and especially the “smart
money.” There is still a + 10 out there and we’ll take it.
Minnesota Vikings +10
(SportsInteraction.com)
Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles
The past few years, the Chicago Bears had their trademark
“ferocious defense” back. Today, the Bears’ defense isn’t quite
as dominating – and as a result, it seems like everyone is
turning on them. The media is pounding the Da Bears’ defense and
the team’s demise.
We feel that Chicago is still a good team – and that the
Philadelphia Eagles, in fact, are very suspect. Last week,
Chicago lost a tough, close game mainly due to four turnovers
and several big plays. The Eagles, on the other hand, squeaked
by a mediocre Jets squad.
Getting +5 for a team that can hold its opponent to 10 points on
a good day – is a good value. We’ll “buy” Chicago on recent “bad
news.”
Chicago Bears +6
(Matchbook.com)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7.
Games to Watch (10-8)
Buffalo Bills +3 +105 (SportsInteraction.com)
Minnesota Vikings +10 (SportsInteraction.com)
Chicago Bears +6 (Matchbook.com)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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