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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 6
10/12/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 6
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 5 continued the sportsbook industry’s streak of
profitable Sundays. All the big decisions went the way of
sportsbook. Green Bay and New Orleans losing outright, plus
Baltimore failing to cover broke up a lot of junk (Teaser/Parlay
bets) on Sunday. The door was slammed shut on the Public on
Monday Night when the heavily-bet Dallas Cowboys won in dramatic
fashion but failed to cover.
The Public posted their fourth consecutive losing week.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of
the action on one side, the Public went 2-4-1. For the season
that makes the Public 17-26-4. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch
analysis continued its positive momentum, posting a 2-1 weekend.
Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 8-7.
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate New England, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the New
York Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.
Look for handle sizes to remain strong as the Public looks to
recoup loses from the last couple of Sundays. Visit
SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from
multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 6 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a good match-up that is distorted by the Public’s love
of offense. Houston, with its 7th best passing offense, started
the season well at 2-0 – before dropping a relatively close game
versus the Colts, losing 30-24. Although a loss, that showing
vs. Indy caused the Public to notice the Texans.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has quietly built a 3-1 record based on
its defense. The Jaguars dominate the line of scrimmage. They
have given up a stingy 41 points in four games and are improving
every week. On the other hand, although Houston won last week,
they barely beat a struggling Miami squad.
Two out of every three bets are coming in on Houston, but sharp
money is holding the line at Jacksonville -6.5. We will “Bet
Against the Public” and take the side of the smart money as well
as the sportsbooks.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
Tennessee Titans vs Tampa Bay Bucs
When a line looks “soft” (meaning it looks too good to be
true!), it’s often a sign to go “the other way.” This is a good
contrarian indicator that is confirmed by SportsInsights’
exclusive Betting Percentages. Almost 75% of the bets placed are
coming in on Tennessee. The Public loves Vince Young and sees
The Titans as a potential powerhouse.
We like Tampa Bay as a good value play. The Bucs lost big to
Indy and are banged up in the Running Back position. However,
it’s their defense that is going to win this game, not their
offense. Tampa’s fast defense should be able to contain Vince
Young and bring our readers a win. We’ll take Tampa Bay -2.5.
Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5 (BetCascade.com or
TradeSports.com)
Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots
This game is an example where our readers might feel queasy
going with the “Sports MarketWatch” play. Dallas is relatively
new to the “powerhouse” club and looked horrible on Monday Night
Football.
On the other hand, an “angered” and motivated Patriot team is
scorching the rest of the NFL by an average of almost 24 points
per game! That’s not a typo; New England has outscored its
opponents 182-65 in five games.
That kind of performance gets attention. And a lot of it! This
game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with almost
90% of the action on the Patriots. Public money has pounded New
England from -4 to -6. You’re getting an extra 2 points.
We like that kind of value as well as Dallas as a good, solid
“Home Dog” value. Let’s “buy” Dallas on its weak Monday Night
performance, and sell a super high Patriot team. A sick stomach
often means a good contrarian, value play.
Dallas Cowboys +6 (SportsInteraction.com)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 5.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
Dallas Cowboys +6
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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