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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 3
9/21/2007 10:33 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 3
Recapping Last Week
All sportsbooks reported a dramatic increase in handle for NFL
Week 2 resulting from a lot of Public Teams playing bad teams
coupled with betting accounts flush with winnings from NFL Week
1. The line manger at 5Dimes put it best, “$50 players became
$150 players overnight.” What seems so easy in NFL Week 1
(betting favorites) came back to bite the Public in NFL Week 2.
NFL Week 2 went the way of the sportsbooks. Most sportsbooks
reported retaining between 4-6% of their handle…more than making
up for Week 1’s losses. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that
in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public
posted a dismal 2-11 record, and for the season 9-13.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis bounced back, posting
a 2-1 weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column
2-4.
View Last Week’s Column
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NFL WEEK 3
We anticipate Indy, Dallas, New England, and Denver to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online
sportsbooks.
NFL Week 3 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
There is little doubt in the sportsbook industry that this will
be one of the biggest games of the weekend. The Public loves
betting last year’s Super Bowl winner and Indy’s explosive
offense make them an attractive pick to novice sports bettors.
A lot of sharp books opened up at Indy -5 and -5.5 and within
hours retreated to -6. We’ve heard reports of Sharp buyback on
Houston at +5.5 and +6, but the massive amount of Public money
coming in on Indy is causing the line to remain Indy -6. We like
Houston for a multitude of reasons.
• Home Dog
• Overwhelming Public opinion on Indy
• Line Value caused by Public money pushing the line 1 pt
• Sharp buyback on Houston +6
This will be a statement game for the Houston Texans. The
hometown crowd knows this and will be in a frenzy making this a
playoff-type atmosphere. Indy struggled last week against
Tennessee. We’re taking Houston +6.5 and looking for a rowdy
home crowd and a well-balanced team to give Indy all they can
handle. We show two top tier sportsbooks, SportsInteraction.com
and BodogLife.com both offering Houston +6.5.
Houston +6.5 (Sportsinteraciton.com or
BodogLife.com)
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
New England made a statement last week against San Diego that –
cheating or not – they are the best team in the NFL. We’re
looking for the Patriots to be flat this week coming off an
exhausting and emotional week of intense media coverage and
scrutiny – brought on by last week’s signal-stealing media
circus. Buffalo is a divisional rival that is hungry for a win.
There is a reason you seldom see 17 point spreads in the NFL.
And we’re taking the points to show you why. There is a lot of
value in a 17 pt spread no matter who’s playing. We’re taking
Buffalo +17.
Buffalo +17 (Sportsinteraction.com or
BodogLife.com)
Seattle Seahawks vs Cincinnati Bengals
If there is one thing we learned from last week, it is that
Cincinnati can’t play defense. The “mighty” Cleveland Browns
torched Cincy for 51 points. Imagine what a well-coached
offensive minded team will do? And look who’s playing Cincy this
week…Seattle. Seattle is a well-balanced team with a potent
offense and a tough defense. We like the fact the Public still
likes Cincy. There’s nothing more exciting to a novice sports
bettor than seeing a team put up 45 points even if they lose.
Cincy is receiving a little more than 70% of the bets placed on
this game BUT the line is moving toward Seattle. This is an
excellent indicator of Sharp money on Seattle. We always follow
the Sharp money!
Seattle -3.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 3.
Games to Watch (2-4)
Houston +6.5
Buffalo +17
Seattle -3.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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