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Sports Marketwatch - Playoffs Edition
NFL Week 21 - NFL Super Bowl
1/30/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 21 – Super Bowl
NFL Playoffs - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL
Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.
The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most
wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother,
wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to
the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials:
everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of
“Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds
makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s
betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the
Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the
amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
SportsInsights’ exclusive betting percentages show that an
amazing 67% of the bets are on the surprising NY Giants. The
line opened at NE –14 but the steady stream of bets on NY has
pushed the line all the way down to NE –12. One sportsbook (Sports Interaction)
even has NE-11.5 at the time of this article. The steady public
action on the Giants has caused a huge 2-point move off of the
key number of 14: a nice value.
The Giants have had a good run in the playoffs. On the other
hand, New England hasn’t covered the spread over the latter part
of the season. As our readers know, we like to “buy low and sell
high.” For the SuperBowl, we’ll “buy” the Patriots at a low and
“sell” the Giants at a high. Speaking of value and buying things
“at a low” – we think that Tom Brady is going to bounce back
mightily after his subpar performance last game.
We see good value on New England –11.5 in the SuperBowl. This is
“for all of the marbles” and we see the Patriots showing why
they are one of the best in history.
New England Patriots –11.5 (Bet at
Sports Interaction -11.5)
Playoff Recap
New England Patriots –11.5 (Bet at
Sports Interaction -11.5)
It should be another exciting Super Bowl. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.comm for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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