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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 2
9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites
going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week
of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the
sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a
lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The
4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an
ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the
doors on Monday.
Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose
egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or
break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire
season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports
bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire
season. Readers from last year will note that we started the
season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the
NFL Regulars season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about
patience and believing in your research.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of
the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face
going 0-3.
View Last Week’s Column
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This Week’s NFL Action
This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for
some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major
criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so
important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them
again:
• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press
We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and
Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Each
one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets
placed. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering
statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins
I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to
be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound
Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week
there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft
lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If
it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds
makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3
but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value
better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.
Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their
manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to
fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media
machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is back.
The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square
money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly
retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the
line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could
have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas
action.
Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on
Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the
scores. Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of
Monday’s sports section. We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog
the Public money has given us.
Miami +4
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will
continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game
plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same
reasons we’re taking the Miami Dolphins.
• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog (+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)
The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog
value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left
off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into
Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has
pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most
notably Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for
our Home Dogs to start barking!
Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog.com)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how bad is
Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week
you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but
try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right
mind would put money on Cleveland this week…no matter what line
they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that
makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying
value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting
an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 – will add an
extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the
difference between long-term winning and losing.
I’m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is
betting against them.
Cleveland +7
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.
Games to Watch (0-3)
Miami +4
Tennessee +7.5
Cleveland +7
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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