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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 18 - NFL Playoffs Wildcard Weekend
1/4/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 – Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 17 was the “cherry on top” of another profitable NFL
season. Most sportsbooks reported an excellent weekend,
retaining between 2-3% of their handle.
The Public posted another losing weekend. SportsInsights.com
analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one
side, the Public went 3-7. For the season, that makes the
Public 59-72-8 = 45.0%.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis finished on a
winning note, going 1-0 last weekend. Overall, that makes the
Games to Watch column 26-19-2 = 57.8%. Not bad for a
free weekly column. If you have enjoyed the insights this column
provides, please be sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up
for a membership. This weekly column is designed to highlight
the revolutionary sports betting information found on
SportsInsights.com. As much fun as football is to bet and watch,
basketball has been our most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport.
Basketball produces mores plays and a higher win percentage.
Take your winning from this year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and
purchase a Premium Pro Membership at SportsInsights.com. Your
bankroll will thank you!
NFL Game to Watch:
2005: 33-25 = 56.9%
2006: 31-18 = 63.3%
2007: 26-19 = 57.8%
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Special Thanks
I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing
sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week,
allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds.
It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to thank the
loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and
support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the
Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line
value – while helping them to a profitable NFL Season, by going
26-19 =57.8%. Visit SportsInsights.com to view Live Betting
Statistics coming from the line boards of multiple sportsbooks.
Basketball – Produces More Plays + Higher Win %
This weekly column is designed to highlight the revolutionary
sports betting information found on SportsInsights.com. As much
fun as football is to bet and watch, basketball has been our
most CONSISTENT and PROFITABLE sport. Basketball produces mores
plays and a higher win percentage. Take your winnings from this
year’s NFL Sports Marketwatch and purchase a Premium Pro
Membership at SportsInsights.com today. Your bankroll will thank
you!!
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL
Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets.
The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most
wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother,
wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to
the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials:
everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of
“Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds
makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s
betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the
Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the
amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
By far the most lopsided bet game of the weekend is Jacksonville
vs Pittsburgh. The Public is betting Jacksonville like they know
the score! At the time of writing, almost 3 out of 4 bets placed
are coming in on Jacksonville, even though they are on road.
Public money has pushed Jax from a 1 pt Underdog to a 2.5pt
Favorite. That’s 3.5pt swing! You very rarely see a home team
Underdog in the playoffs. There is a tremendous “buy back”
opportunity taking Pittsburg +2.5 at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (Bet at
Bodog +3-115)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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