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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 15
12/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 15
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 14 was a bloodbath for the sportsbook industry. All
sportsbooks reported a long day of payouts on Monday, losing
between 5-7% of their handle. 10 out of 14 favorites covered,
which means a lot of 3, 4, 5, even 6 team parlays hit this week.
It was the worst day of payouts this NFL season.
The Public posted a monster weekend. SportsInsights.com analysis
shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the
Public went 6-3. For the season, that makes the Public 48-54-8 =
47.1%. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis
continued its downward spiral, going 0-3 last weekend. Overall,
that makes the Games to Watch column 21-17-2 = 55.2%.
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to be significantly up as bankrolls are
flush with last Sunday’s winnings. You’ll see $50 become $100.
We anticipate Cincy, Green Bay, Seattle, Indy, and Minnesota
will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from
multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 15 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
New York Jets vs New England Patriots
This is a big one. Revenge for the Patriots on the “tattle-tale”
Jets. And a chance for the lowly Jets to stand up to the mighty
Patriots in a bitter divisional rivalry. The point spread is a
huge 24 points and the bets are fairly evenly split. However,
our contacts at the sportsbooks report “sharp” action on the
Jets.
The line opened at NY Jets +24.5 but “sharps” started driving
the line down to 24 and 23.5 fairly quickly. At the time of this
writing, there were still some 24’s left. Grab the points and go
with the smart money.
New York Jets +24
Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers
The public is overwhelmingly on Seattle, with more than 3 out of
4 bets coming in on the Seahawks. Seattle’s strong 42-21 showing
against a decent Arizona squad, combined with Carolina’s meek
37-6 loss to Jax gives us the “value setup” that we like to see.
We’ll buy Carolina on a low and sell Seattle on a high. Seattle
has now run off 5 wins in a row and is gaining a “public”
following. We’ll make the contrarian play and “bet against the
public” and take the growing number of points, which opened at
Carolina +7 and is now +9 and +8 in some places. That’s 1-2 points of
added value, right near the “key 7” number.
Carolina Panthers +8
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has won 4 in a row while the Bears have lost 2 in a
row. Again, we see value by “buying” the “cold” team, and
“selling” the “hot” team. Chicago is better than its 5-8 record
suggests. Note that the Bears’ “Points For” versus “Points
Against” is not bad at 253-296. We think the Bears will make a
game of it.
This is a big Monday Night Football game and the public is
riding the favorite as usual. The Public sees a hot Minnesota
team that is fighting for a playoff spot. We see a Bear team
playing on national television getting double-digit points in a
divisional match-up. By game-time, you might be able to find
Chicago at more than +10.
Chicago Bears +10
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 15.
Games to Watch (21-17-2)
New York Jets +24 (SportsInteraction.com)
Carolina Panthers +8 (Bodog)
Chicago Bears +10
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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