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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 11
11/16/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 11
Recapping Last Week
All sportsbooks reported healthy handle sizes in NFL Week 10,
attributed to some good divisional rivalry games and the media
hype surrounding the Sunday Night game between Indy and San
Diego. NFL Week 10 was a winning endeavor for the sportsbooks,
keeping 3-4% of their handle. All the big decision went the way
of the sportsbooks. New Orlean’s implosion against hapless St
Louis, Arizona hammering Detroit, and finally Indy’s losing out
against San Diego ensured another profitable Sunday for the
books.
The Public posted their ninth consecutive losing week. (Yikes,
that’s over 2 months!) SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in
games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went
2-3-1. For the season that makes the Public 30-40-6 = 42.9%.
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its
positive momentum, going 3-0 last weekend. Overall, that makes
the Games to Watch column 19-10-1 = 65.5%.
View Last Week’s Column
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to remain strong in NFL Week 11 as the
Public attempts to cash in again on some apparent “soft lines.”
We anticipate Cleveland, New England, Pittsburgh, and Indy to be
the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from
multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 11 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
This game is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided-bet games
of the day. The Public is overwhelmingly on Cleveland, with
almost 9 out of 10 bets coming in on the Browns at the time of
writing. Surprisingly, the line has started to move against the
Public, a telltale sign of “smart money” coming in on Baltimore.
Baltimore, which stood at 4-2 just 3 weeks ago, has now lost
three games in a row and looks a very mediocre 4-5. The Ravens
look like they can’t score for their lives. However, the Raven
defense is still strong – and we look for them to bounce back in
this divisional match-up.
We like getting a FG with a tough and angry home dog, especially
with a strong defense like Baltimore’s. Look for the divisional
and playoff races to tighten.
Baltimore Ravens +3
Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals
With 2 out of 3 bets coming in on the Bengals, the line has
moved AGAINST the Public Betting percentage. The line has made a
huge move around the key number 3, with Cincy going from -3.5 to
-3. Our contacts at the sportsbooks verify sharp action on the
Arizona Cardinals.
Memories take time to fade, but the Bengals are no longer the
elite team they were just two years ago, when they won their
division by going 11-5. In addition, the Cardinals are no longer
the league doormat like they were last year, when they were a
last place team. Take the Cardinals and the 3.5 while it’s still
around. As usual, we’ll go with the smart money, fade the public
– and go with value.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (SportsInteraction.com)
Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Don’t look now, but there’s a “new kid in town.” And actually,
it’s not just any “new kid” – it’s America’s Team, the Dallas
Cowboys. With the Colts suffering back-to-back losses, the 8-1
Cowboys appear to be the Patriot’s new challengers.
After the Cowboy’s convincing win over a strong NY Giant squad,
there’s starting to be a media frenzy around Tony Romo’s
Cowboys. This, combined with Washington’s tough loss against
Philly in the previous week, make us feel we can sell the
Cowboys on a high and buy the Redskins at a low.
The Redskins have held their own while playing in the strong NFC
East Division and we see value on Washington in this divisional
rivalry. In addition, SportsInsights’ data shows that the line
opened at Dallas -11, only to have sharps quickly buy Washington
and push the line down to -10.5 (while 75% of the bets are
coming in on Dallas!).
Washington Redskins +10.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 11.
Games to Watch (19-10-1)
Baltimore Ravens +3
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (SportsInteraction.com)
Washington Redskins +10.5
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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