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Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 1
9/7/2007 2:01 PM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where
Daniel Fabrizio, founder of
SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented
insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to
know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of
the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which
games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan
takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 1
NFL 2006 Season Recap (31-18 = 63.3%)
Recapping 2006
It’s always nice to start off the year by taking a look back and
2006 was a year to remember. For the 2006 NFL season,
SportsInsights.com Games to Watch was an impressive 31-18 =
63.3%. Not bad for a free weekly column. Last year, by all
accounts, was the “Year of the Dog,” resulting in one of the
most profitable NFL seasons on record for the sports betting
industry. SportsInsights.com analysis showed that in games with
over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a dismal
42-71 record for year. No wonder there were so many foreclosures
this year…just kidding! It was great year to be fading the
Public – but let’s not linger on the past too long: a new NFL
season is upon us!
If you have enjoyed the insights this column provides, please be
sure to visit SportsInsights.com and sign up for a membership.
Your bankroll will thank you for it!
2006 Games to Watch = 31-18 = 63.3%
2005 Games to Watch = 33-25 = 56.9%
Overall = 64-43 = 59.8%
NFL WEEK 1
It’s been an extremely long preseason and it’s finally time for
some REAL football. Oh, how I hate preseason football. I never
bet it and I never will, but let’s save that rant for another
time.
Warning to all new readers of the Sports MarketWatch column: in
order to follow our selections, you’ll need nerves of steel and
an iron stomach. Purchasing a case of Pepto-Bismol wouldn’t be a
bad idea. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games
that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to
be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is
line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the
board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on
good.
We anticipate New England, Pittsburgh, and Seattle to be the
most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com
to view wagering statistics on every NFL game from multiple
online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
I circled this game the day the Patriots announced the Randy
Moss deal. I think the Pats are an excellent team but the media
hype surrounding them is causing a lot of over valuation. If you
listen to the experts they are all saying the same thing - let’s
forget the season and hand the Lombardy Trophy to the Brady
Bunch .As Michigan (Brady’s old school) will tell you, there is
a reason they play the games.
This game will be one of the top three most lopsided bet games.
The sportsbooks will need the Jets HUGE this weekend. I love
being on the side of the sportsbooks. The line opened at New
England -6.5 and most sportsbooks have remained there all week.
A couple of Square sportbooks (“square” sportsbooks cater to
novice bettors) are shading the line to New England -7. We eat
these kinds of shaded lines for lunch!
I double circled this game when I saw Pinnacle, a sharp
sportsbook (“sharp” sportsbooks cater to professional bettors)
moved their line against the Public to New England -6. A betting
line moving in the opposite direction of the Public “betting
percentages” is a sure tell-tale sign that large amounts of
money have come in on the other side. Would you rather be on the
team that has 1000 $100 sports bettors, or on the team that has
one $100,000 bettor? You guessed it; our cash is always with the
sharp money!
There are a couple of +7’s currently out in the marketplace,
most notably SportsInteraction.com. We’re locking in the Jets at
+7 -110 and looking for the fighting Mangini’s to show the sport
pundits why they play the games on the field and not in the TV
studios.
New York Jets +7 -110 (SportsInteraction.com)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks
There is little doubt in the sportsbook industry that this will
be one of the most lopsided bet games of the weekend. The Public
can’t get enough of Seattle. We circled this game for multiple
reasons.
• Public overwhelmingly on one side, 83% on Seattle
• Sharp Money on Tampa Bay
The game opened Seattle -6 and then, by mid-week, most of the
major sharp sportsbooks moved to Seattle -5.5 even though over
83% of bets placed on this game are on Seattle. There are still
plenty of 6’s and 6.5’s on the board. For the purpose of this
article, we’ll take +6 -105 at SportsInteraction.com, and once
again be on the Sharp side.
Tampa Bay +6
Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings
I circled this game for the exact opposite reason as the New
England Patriots game. This is a classic “buy on bad news”
situation with all the negative publicity surrounding Michael
Vick’s demise. I think Atlanta is a good football team – with a
solid head coach – who has them prepared to play on Sunday.
There is no doubt that Vick was a “game-changing playmaker” but
I believe his departure will make Atlanta a more balanced team
that can win by throwing or passing the ball.
As expected, there is heavy one-sided action on Minnesota. The
early Public money has pushed this line from Minnesota -2.5 to
Minnesota -3. We’re taking Atlanta +3 -110 and looking for
Atlanta to show the league there is life after Vick.
Atlanta +3
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.
Games to Watch (0-0)
New York Jets +7
Tampa Bay +6
Atlanta +3
It should be another exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep Sports
Marketplace Games to Watch picks handy and your browser
pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates,
using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com
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