NFL Marketwatch - Week 9
11/6/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column is published every
Friday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium
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NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
13-11 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL 2005-09 |
114-83 |
57.9% |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 9
Recapping Last Week
All sportsbooks reported lower betting handles in NFL Week
8, attributed to no Sunday Night game and the lack of marquee match-ups. NFL Week
8 was a wash for the sportsbook industry; most books reported being flat to
winning 1% of their handle. The sledding was a little tougher in Week 8
for the Public due to the fact that the St Louis Rams and Detroit Lions played each
other, plus Tampa Bay Bucs and the Washington Redskins had a bye week. This took
away what had previously been four automatic wins for the Public. However, the Public
continued to cash in on the pitiful Cleveland Browns. The sportsbooks lost a few
big decisions but also managed to win a couple. Oakland covering against San
Diego and Philly routing the New York Giants were big games for the books -- breaking up a lot to 3- and 5-team parlays and teasers.
Our Games to Watch returned to its winning ways, posting a
2-1 record. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
65% of the action on one side, the Public posted yet another winning Sunday,
going 4-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive
38-26 = 59.4%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in
games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record
of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone
the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 9 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports
betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.
We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint
the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Washington, Tampa Bay, or
Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Luckily for the
sportsbooks, Cleveland and St Louis are in a bye week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
This match-up boasts the largest point-spread of the week,
with the high-scoring Saints favored by two touchdowns. Surprisingly, even
with heavy one-sided action on New Orleans, the NFL sports marketplace saw reverse line
movement in this game. Even with about 70% of all bets (including teasers
and parlays) taking the heavily-favored Saints, the line dropped from its opener
of New Orleans -14.5 down to -13.5.
SportsInsights' Smart Money plays triggered on Carolina by Carib
(17-6, +9.8 units)
and WSEX (11-6, 4.3units). Our readers know that we like this kind of
"reverse line movement" where we can follow the "sharps" --
and "bet against the Public." In addition, we like Carolina
based on other factors such as:
-
New Orleans has a short week because they played
on Monday Night Football.
-
Carolina is coming off a big road win against Arizona
but still remains undervalued.
-
Carolina is a big dog in a Divisional match-up.
-
Although Carolina has given up some points this year,
they have the NFL's top-rated defense in terms of passing yards per
game.
Carolina Panthers +13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction +13.5 -110)
Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers
There was a general consensus among the sportsbook
line managers that we spoke with this week. They said that early
"sharp money" on Tennessee drove the line down from its opener of
Tennessee +5.5 on Sunday -- all the way down to +4.0 by Monday (!!) -- even with
a steady barrage of Public money on San Francisco.
We like this "Reverse line movement" -- as well
as Tennessee coming off an emotional win
over Jacksonville. SportsInsights had a Smart Money play trigger on Tenn by
BetOnline (16-8, +6.9 units). You can still get +4.5 at a couple of sportsbooks most
notably, 5Dimes and
Bodog.
In this "What-have-you-done-for-me-lately world"
-- Tennessee, with its 1-6 record this year, is making people forget that they
were one of the NFL's elite teams last year (going 13-3). A fairly hefty
68% of bets are landing on a San Fran team that has been sub-.500 both last year
and this year. We think that Tennessee's emotional win last week may
"wake them up." Sharps seem to agree that there is good value on
the Titans -- so we'll tag along with the "smart money" and "bet
against the Public."
Tennessee Titans +4.5 (Bet at Bodog +4.5)
San Diego Chargers vs New York Giants
Will the real NY Giants stand up? After a hot 5-0
start, the Giants have slumped to 5-3, with 3 straight losses -- where they
looked very mediocre. San Diego, on the other hand, has won two straight games
-- although we note that the wins came against the lowly Raiders and
Chiefs! The recent streaks have the Giants surprisingly undervalued
-- and San Diego overvalued!
The "sharps" don't seem confused about the
"real Giants" -- at least in this match-up. The line opened at
the Giants -3 and -3.5 at various shops. However, "steam moves"
quickly moved the line all the way to -4.5 by Monday afternoon. The line
has even touched -5 at many sportsbooks -- but you can still grab NY Giants -4.5
at several sportsbooks. This is a rare opportunity to grab some value on
one the NFL's better teams. We think the Giants, at home, will "get
well" with some "home-cooked food" and look for them to break out
of their slump in a big way. Give the points.
New York Giants -4.5 (Bet at BetUS -4.5)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (13-11,
54.2%)
Carolina Panthers +13.5 (Bet at Sports Interaction +13.5 -110)
Tennessee Titans +4.5 (Bet at Bodog +4.5)
New York Giants -4.5 (Bet at BetUS -4.5)
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com