NFL
Marketwatch - Week 8
10/30/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column is published every
Friday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium
Pro Membership.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
11-10 |
52.4% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL 2005-09 |
114-83 |
57.9% |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 8
Recapping Last Week
The sportsbooks took abother beating in NFL Week 7. The amount of
cash the sportsbook industry paid out on Sunday was rivaled only by the Obama
stimulus package. Let's just say there will be a lot of happy kids this
Christmas -- because Daddy hit a 5-team parlay for $1000. To say there are some
crappy NFL teams would be a gross understatement. In the four most-lopsided bet
games, the total score for all 4 games was 145-23. It seems that a couple of NFL
teams should update their schedules and play on Saturdays against college teams
-- and not on Sundays against the pros. The only positive for the books was the NY
Giants losing outright in the Sunday Night game. That helped stop the massive
hemorrhaging all books took on Sunday.
Our Games to Watch slumped, posting a 1-2 record.
The swing game was New Orleans vs Miami, but a late interception, returned for a
TD,
by New Orleans -- resulted in New Orleans covering. That was a tough loss to
swallow. We shake off that loss off -- and look to bounce back in NFL Week 8.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
65% of the action on one side, the Public was an impressive 5-2. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive
34-23 = 59.6%. To put this into perspective: over the past 3 NFL seasons, in
games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record
of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone
the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 8 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports
betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.
We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint
the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Houston, Minnesota, Indy and the New York Giants
to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
I circled this game as soon as the line came out. Minnesota
getting +3 looks too easy. And -- when something looks too good to be
true, it usually is. This game looks like a classic "trap game" for sports bettors.
The
sportsbooks are looking to bag you into taking Minny and the points. We're
looking to go the other way and take Green Bay.
Although Minnesota has a flashier 6-1 record, the Green Bay
Packers are a solid 4-2 -- with a better point differential than the
Vikings. The Vikings have the flashier names in Adrian Peterson and Brett
Favre -- but the "Pack is back" with a stingy defense. The
Vikings appear slightly over-valued, even after their loss to the Steelers last
week, while the Packers are slightly under-valued as they have quietly built
their 4-2 record with a good defense and a maturing Aaron
Rodgers.
With 3 out of 4 bets landing on the Vikings, let's
"bet against the Public" and grab the Packers as a contrarian
value. The Packers are the home team in a bitter divisional rivalry --
intensified by Brett Favre visiting his long-time home: Green Bay. Give
the points and look for Green Bay to surprise a lot of bettors.
Green Bay Packers -3 -110
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Our offshore contact circled this game because he saw
early "Smart money" coming in big on Miami. The bets have
evened out a bit later in the week. However, SportsInsights'
proprietary Steam Move "analysis tool" was triggered
by the sportsbook CRIS -- on Miami +3.5. Note that CRIS triggered steam moves are 29-18,
+7.8 units this season.
After a hot 3-0 start, the Jets went 0-3 before beating
the lowly Raiders last week. Miami, on the other hand, started the
season 0-3 before winning 2 of their last 3 games. Miami had a tough
loss last week to a good New Orleans Saints team. These teams look
like they are headed in opposite directions. Let's join the
"Smart Money" -- and the "Steam move" trigger.
Look for the rising Dolphins to take out the sinking Jets.
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Bet at WSEX +3.5 -110)
Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers
This is our Pepto Bismol game of the week. Sometimes you need bad teams to do good things. Although
the Oakland Raiders have won two games this season, they have been
outscored by a whopping 115 points in just 7 games! That means they have
lost their games by an average of 16 points. Ouch!
On the other hand, San Diego blew out the KC Chiefs last
week by 30 points! Let's "sell" the Chargers at a recent high --
after their blowout win last week -- and "buy" the Raiders after their
38-0 drubbing by the Jets last week. This game has a large point-spread --
that is inflated by both teams' recent performances -- as well as the
sportsbooks' bad taste from "bad teams" the past few
weeks.
The line opened at Oakland +13.5 at Pinnacle last Sunday,
but moved a huge 3 points within 30 minutes. There looks to be some value
in that huge point spread. Time to take a shot of Pepto -- and look for a
bounce-back for the cellar-dwellers.
Oakland Raiders +16.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (11-10,
52.4%)
Green Bay Packers -3
Miami Dolphins +3.5 (Bet at WSEX +3.5 -110)
Oakland Raiders +16.5
It should be another exciting
opening NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com