NFL Marketwatch - Week 6
10/16/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio,
founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the
NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on
the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!
The column is published every Friday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed
out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports
betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is
chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning
betting tools and betting systems found on
SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden
value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped
you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then
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SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro.
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
8-7 |
53.3% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL 2005-09 |
114-83 |
57.9% |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 6
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 5 continued the sportsbook industry's positive
momentum. Most sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday, retaining between 1%-2%
of their handle. Overall, it's still been a dismal NFL season, so far, for the
sportsbooks. However, one line manager put it best, "anytime you're not paying
out on Monday, it's a good Sunday." Carolina, Pittsburgh, and New England all
failing to cover were big games for the sportsbooks. Miami winning outright on
Monday Night ensured a profitable weekend for the books.
Our Games to Watch had a breakout weekend, posting a
much-needed 3-0 record. We've climbed the mountain and are now above .500. We
look to build on this positive momentum in NFL Week 6. Hopefully, readers have
stuck with us and practiced good money management: keeping their bet sizes the
same during a winning streak or a losing streak. As we've mentioned many times
before, changing your bet size -- at any time -- during the season is one of the
biggest mistakes novice sports bettors make. Professional sports bettors start
the season with a known bankroll, for example $1000. They then place 3%-4%
(sometimes less) of that bankroll per wager. In this example, they should be
betting between $30-$40 per bet. This allows the sports bettor to survive a
downturn and profit in an upturn. Like it or not, sports betting is a
"grind-it-out" process with many ups and downs. Success is measured over the
course of an entire season, not a single week.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-5. For the season, that makes
the Public an impressive 26-18 = 59.1%. To put this into perspective: for the
last 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the
Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the start of the
NFL has gone the way of the Square.
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 6 – Games to
Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports
betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on
SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Minnesota, New York Giants, Philly, and
anyone playing Tampa Bay (!!) to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week.
Visit
SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online
sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins
This is definitely not the "Game of the Week." In this
match-up, we have two underperforming teams (with a combined 2-8 record) going
head-to-head. However, one of our risk-manager contacts circled this game
early in the week. He said that the "Smart Money" is coming in big on
Washington. CRIS and Olympic both opened with Washington -5 and quickly
moved to Washington -6, with a lot of books moving to -6.5.
Most books have now moved to Washington -6.5 -- but our
readers know that we like joining the Smart Money. About 70% of the bets are
landing on KC, so we also get "contrarian value" by "Betting Against the
Public." We're selling on KC's positive showing last week against Dallas -- and
buying Washington on their tough loss to Carolina. We don't often "give points"
and take the favorite, but many of the sports marketplace indicators that we
study point to "value" in this match-up. Give the points! If you shop around,
you can get Washington -6 -110 at plenty of books.
Washington Redskins -6 -110 (Bet
at BetOnline -6 -110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
SportsInsights.com has developed a series of award-winning
tools for its Members. For many sports, one of SportsInsights' most
powerful tools -- is our
Smart Money triggers.
We tabulate the performance for Smart Money Plays for each of the sportsbooks we
follow. This week, we have "Smart Money" plays coming in on Baltimore from
Phoenix (12-2 +10units) and Carib Sports (11-4, +6.24). Please note how
effective these sportsbooks' predictions have been this season.
In particular, "Smart Money" triggers means that we have
"Reverse Line Movement." In this case, with the majority of bets (about 70%)
coming in on Minny -- the line has moved from Minny -3 to -2.5 at some books.
Grab the huge "key number" of +3 before it moves to +2.5 everywhere. This
should be a great game, and getting the +3 is a solid value.
Baltimore Ravens +3 -110 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +3 -110)
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The public is betting this game like they know the score.
The oddsmakers have placed a juicy line for bettors -- by making the NY Giants a
+3 underdog! Both the Giants (5-0) and Saints (4-0) are undefeated this
season. However, the Giants have been recent Superbowl Champs -- and have been
very solid for several years now. To many bettors, this is a soft line -- so
they are piling onto the Giant bandwagon. Including "Teasers and Parlays" --
almost 3 out of every 4 bets are getting down on the visiting Giants. To
us, as "contrarian sports investors" -- this means that there is good value
going with New Orleans.
New Orleans is well-coached team coming off a bye-week.
The Saints will be well-rested and ready for the New York Giants. In addition,
SportsInsights' Smart Money triggers came in on New Orleans from Pinnacle (9-3,
+6.1) and Matchbook (17-14, +2.1 units). Take the home team in this match-up,
which promises to be a playoff preview.
New Orleans -3 (Bet
at BetUS -3 -120)
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the
NFL.
Games to Watch (8-7, 53.3%)
Washington Redskins -6 -110 (Bet
at BetOnline -6 -110)
Baltimore Ravens +3 -110 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +3 -110)
New Orleans -3 (Bet
at BetUS -3 -120)
It should be another
exciting opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and
your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com