NFL
Marketwatch - Week 5
10/09/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column is published every
Friday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
5-7 |
41.7% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL 2005-09 |
114-83 |
57.9% |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 5
Recapping Last Week
The rain clouds finally parted and the sun came out for a
few brief moments, in NFL Week 4, for the sportsbook industry. NFL Week 4 wasn't
spectacular, but after the beating the books took the previous three Sundays -- sometimes
"breaking even" is a win. All sportsbooks
reported increased handle size due to
the simple fact that many accounts are flush with cash. Most sportsbooks reported retaining between
0.5%-1.0% of their handle. Tennessee losing big to Jacksonville -- and Cleveland
covering -- were big games for the books.
Our Games to Watch bounced back, posting a much-needed 2-1 record. We've weathered the storm and look to build on the
positive momentum. Overall, the Games to Watch are still below .500, going
5-7 for the season -- but on its way back to profitability. We're picking ourselves up off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and
sticking to our guns. The biggest mistake most novice sports bettors make is
changing their bet amount during winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors
stick to their systems for the entire season and never alter their bet amount.
When games start going your way -- and they will -- you want to bet your
normal amount to take advantage of the upswing.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
65% of the action on one side, the Public went 3-3. For the season, that makes the Public an impressive
22-13 = 62.9%. To put
this into perspective: for the last 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of
128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first 4 weeks of the NFL have gone
the way of the Square.
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 5 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports
betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.
We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint
the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate Minnesota, Carolina, Pittsburgh, New England,
and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Our offshore contacts circled this game early in the
week. The Carolina Panthers, one of last year's best NFL teams, is yet to
win a game this season (0-3). Bettors are pounding their money down on the
Carolina Panthers to "make like their 12-4 record" last year.
Almost 80% of the bets are landing on Carolina this week. Even so, the
line has moved from Washington +4.5 down to Washington +3.5 because "big
money" is loading up on the Redskins.
This kind of sports marketplace action ("reverse line
movement") is a good indication of "smart money" at work.
SportsInsights.com's tools indicate that a "Smart Money" play was triggered on Washington by Carib (8-4,
+3.34 units). This matches up with what our offshore contacts have
been telling us. We believe that there is still excellent value in betting the Redskins +4 at
Sports Interaction. Let's "bet against the Public" and
go with the "big money."
Washington Redskins +4 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +4 -110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
This game is one of the most "lopsided-bet" games
of the week. Even though the Steelers are just 2-2 this season, sports
bettors are getting down on the Steelers as if they are the league's
powerhouse. And why not? This week, the Steelers play the lowly
Detroit Lions, a team with one of the league's worst point differentials this
season -- and a team that was, umm, winless last year!
Almost 5 out of every 6 bets are coming down on the
Steelers. Even with such a huge disparity of bets, our sports betting
analytics saw a "Smart Money" play triggered on Detroit by Phoenix
(11-2 +9.13 units). The line opened at Detroit +12 at Cris, but is
currently +10.5. We see this "reverse line movement" despite the
fact that Detroit's rookie QB
Stafford is out for the game.
Our readers know that we often need "bad"
teams to "not be horrible" against "good" teams.
Here, we see a "live dog" in the Detroit Lions getting
double-digit points at home -- against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has
given up an average of 20 points a game this season. Not the
"Steel Curtain" of old... We still see excellent value in betting the Detroit +10.5
at
BetUS
Detroit Lions +10.5 (Bet at BetUS +10.5 -110)
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
One of our favorite sportsbook risk-managers was
animated about this match-up. He said that the New England-Denver game
was getting a "LOT of action" -- and that most of his book's smaller bettors
were getting down on New England, "after the Patriot's impressive win
last week over the Baltimore Ravens." Even the headlines have
been
trumpeting, "The Dominating Pats of Old." However, even with
heavy one-way action on New England, there was reverse line
movement.
The line opened at Denver
+3.5, but made a huge move to the key football number of +3. This kind of
reverse line movement is a definite indication that "big money" is
taking the Denver Broncos at home. There is still excellent value in betting
Denver +3.5 at
BetUS.
In addition, SportsInsights.com's Smart Money tool triggered a play on Denver by 5Dimes
(28-22, +4.34 units). This is a week of several "smart
money" plays. Let's see if the "sharps" can help us to
another winning week.
Denver Broncos +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (5-7, 41.7%)
Washington Redskins +4
(Bet
at Sports Interaction +4 -110)
Detroit Lions +10.5
(Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
Denver Broncos +3.5 (Bet at BetUS +3.5 -110)
It should be another exciting
opening NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com