NFL Marketwatch - Week 4
10/02/2009 11:01 AM
EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio,
founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the
NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on
the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column is published every Friday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of
the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL
Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom
line, then Try
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10/7/09
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
3-6 |
33.3% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL 2005-09 |
114-83 |
57.9% |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
4
Recapping Last Week
When it rains, it pours. NFL Week 3 continued the
monsoon rains for the sportsbook industry. Another couple of weekends of this
weather and there will be no sportsbooks left to take bets. The only silver
lining for the books has been a profitable college football season.
One line manager put it best, "We won on Saturday and then give it all back on
Sunday." We're hoping for a break in the clouds and a little sunshine this weekend.
Our Games to Watch continued its downward trend,
posting a 1-2 record. But sometimes just getting one win is a moral
victory. Overall, the Games to Watch is in the red going 3-6 for the
season. The good news is it's a new month. We're picking ourselves up off the
ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The biggest mistake most
novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount during winning streaks
or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems for the entire season
and never alter their bet amount. When games start going your way, and they
will, you want to be betting your normal amount to take advantage of the upswing.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65%
of the action on one side, the Public had another monster weekend, going 7-3.
For the season, that makes the Public an impressive 19-10 = 65.5%. To put this
into perspective: for the last 3 NFL seasons, games in which the Public was at
least 65% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.
Needless to say, the first 3 weeks of the NFL have gone the way of the
Square.
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 4 NFL MarketWatch –
Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the
sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and betting statistics
found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting
opportunities.
We anticipate Tennessee, Cincinnati, New York Giants, and San
Fran to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view real-time
wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
New York Giants
vs. Kansas City Chiefs
At the time of writing, this game is attracting the heaviest
betting action of the week. Bettors are getting their hard-earned money
down "fast and furiously" on the heavily-favored Giants. On paper, this
game looks like a total mis-match. The Giants, led by a maturing Eli
Manning -- who is gaining confidence with every game -- are Superbowl contenders
and a solid 3-0. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are 0-3 after a 2-14
record in 2008.
Including teasers and parlays, more than 5 out of every 6
bets are landing on the Giants. That is HUGE! Weirdly enough, even
with an overwhelming number of bets landing on the Giants, the line is moving
the other way! The line opened at Giants -9.5 at Pinnacle, and Giants -9
at CRIS. The line is now generally available at Giants -8.5 -- and at some
books, Giants -8! This means that some "big money bets" are coming
down on the KC Chiefs. "Big money" often implies "smart
money." Let's "bet against the Public" and join the side of the
"sharps." You can still grab KC +9 if you shop around.
Kansas City Chiefs +9 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +9 -105)
New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints
The Jets are flying high after their solid wins over New
England and then Tennessee. We believe that the "very impressive" wins
have the Jets currently overvalued. We're looking to "sell" the Jets at
this "recent high" as we expect them to come back to earth a bit -- especially
on the road against an explosive New Orleans Saints team.
Last year, both the Jets and Saints were slightly above
average teams in the NFL. The Jets finished 9-7, while the Saints were
8-8. However, note that the Saints led the league with 463 points scored
and a huge 57 TDs (and had a nicely "plus point differential"). This year,
both teams are currently 3-0. Someone's got to lose -- but who's it going
to be?
Our contact at one of the major offshore sportsbooks
circled this game because early sharp money moved the line from it's
opener of New Orleans -6.5 to New Orleans -7. Our SportsInsights "betting
percentages" have the bets coming down fairly evenly. With the bets fairly
even, but the point spread inching up to New Orleans -7, we know that there are
some heavy hitters taking the Saints. We'll go with the "early sharp
money" and take the Saints to bring the visiting Jets back to
earth.
New Orleans Saints -7 (Bet
at BetUS -7 -110)
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers find themselves in the unusual position of
looking up at many teams in the standings, with just a 1-2 record. We're
looking to "buy" the Steelers at this relative "low point." With more
than 2 out of every 3 bets landing on the Chargers, many people don't think
the Steelers are as solid as they have been the past few seasons.
However, even with most bets landing on the Chargers, the point spread
actually moved in the direction of the Steelers!
The point spread for this game opened at Pittsburgh -5 but
quickly moved to Pittsburgh -6.5. This is an indication that "smart
money" is taking the Steelers to come back "to form." We don't often
like taking favorites, but the Steelers giving less than a TD at home on
Sunday evening is a good value. Give the
points.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (Bet
at BetUS -6 -110)
- So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com
analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (3-6, 33.3%)
Kansas City
Chiefs +9 (Bet
at Sports Interaction +9 -105)
New Orleans Saints -7 (Bet
at BetUS -7 -110) - Pittsburgh Steelers -6
(Bet
at BetUS -6 -110)
It should be another exciting
opening NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser
pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates,
using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with
the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel
Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com