NFL Marketwatch - NFL Super Bowl Betting
Trends Edition
2/05/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
20 Conference Championships
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(2-1 =
66.7%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The
amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the
Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their
mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some
interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means
opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion
when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing
that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of
“Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints
The Super Bowl is upon us -- and what do the sports
marketplace indicators have to say? Early betting leaned towards the
Colts, with about 65% of the bets taking Peyton Manning and his Colts. This pushed the line from the Colts -3.5 opener all the way to
-5.5 at many sports books. Some books even hit -6. Recent
betting has been more "even" -- and brought the overall betting percentage down to 57% on the Colts, and the
line back down to -4.5. If you shop around, you can still grab the
Saints +5 at Bodog, WSEX, and SIA.
In addition to contrarian value and associated line value on New Orleans,
SportsInsights' proprietary analysis tool triggered two Smart Money Plays on New Orleans. Our readers know that
we like contrarian
value as well as Smart Money indicators. Over the years, this
philosophy has proven to give our Members an edge in "sports
investing."
Indianapolis Colt Dwight
Freeney is listed as questionable. He will not practice all week due to a
sprained ankle with possible torn cartilage. Even if he does play on Sunday he
should be less than 100%. Freeney leads the Colts with 13.5
sacks. This will give Drew Brees the extra time necessary to
pick apart the Colts secondary.
The public often focuses on recent performance, and in this
case, performance in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. In particular,
the public remembers the Colts comeback and thrashing of the Jets, starting near
the end of the first half. They also remember how the Saints nearly lost,
even with the Vikings committing a crazy amount of turnovers. Data shows
that performance in the Championship game is relatively uncorrelated to Super
Bowl performance. This is a good opportunity to buy the Saints at a low
and sell the Colts at a relative high -- with data to back things
up.
New Orleans Saints +5 (Bet
at Bodog +5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition
(2-1 66.7%)
New Orleans Saints +5 (Bet
at Bodog +5 -110)
Enjoy the
Super Bowl!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com