NFL Marketwatch - Week 20 - Playoff Edition
1/22/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week
20 Conference Championships
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(2-0 = 100.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The
amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the
Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their
mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some
interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means
opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion
when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing
that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of
“Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost
60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened
at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed
the line to Jets +7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at
several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line
move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even
ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about
what "vig" you pay at that line.
The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting
in for a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the
last team to claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into
the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense
and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the
playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.
This match-up is similar to other games where one team has
more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the
ability to blow out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than
not, the game ends up being closer than expected. The Jets have the
defense and running game to play with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against
the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8 points.
New York Jets +8
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition
(2-0 100%)
New York Jets +8
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com