NFL Marketwatch - Week 19 Playoff Edition
1/15/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL
Divisional Playoffs
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry
in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. The previous Sunday closed
the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported
a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It
was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let's just say we're all glad
the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going
2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the
red, 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce
positive results. We're proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105
56.7% but disappointed in a subpar 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our
winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For
the season, that puts the Public "in the red" with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective:
over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on
one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say,
the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the "Square."
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
| Year |
Record |
Win Percentage |
| NFL 2009-10 |
25-23 |
52.1% |
| NFL 2008-09 |
26-22 |
54.2% |
| NFL 2007-08 |
26-19 |
57.8% |
| NFL 2006-07 |
31-18 |
63.3% |
| NFL 2005-06 |
31-24 |
56.4% |
| TOTAL |
139-106 |
56.7% |
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
Special Thanks
I’d like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for
taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to
their line boards and minds. It’s been an education in itself. I’d also like to
thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and
support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch
has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Divisional Playoffs - Games to Watch Playoff Edition
(1-0 = 100.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The
amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the
Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their
mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the
professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some
interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means
opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion
when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing
that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of
“Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints
With the Public overwhelmingly on Arizona, our readers
know who we will favor. Surprisingly, we are taking the favored Saints
-- but the Public often goes by the, "What have you done for me
lately?" mentality. We will be "selling" Arizona's
dramatic OT victory over Green Bay -- and "buying" New Orleans on a down swing
-- as they stumbled in the final weeks of the NFL regular season.
In addition to "buying low" and "selling
high" -- SportsInsights had several Smart Money
alerts come in on New Orleans. Our Members know that we always follow the Smart Money.
So there you have it: we get to "bet against the Public" and follow
the "Sharps" as we take a rare favorite. We expect the Saints to
"come back to form" now that the playoffs have begun for them.
The Saints were 13-0 at one point this season -- and they led the league in net
points (PF minus PA). Give the points.
New Orleans Saints -7 +102 (Bet at Matchbook -7
+100)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition
(1-0 100%)
New Orleans Saints -7 +100 (Bet at Matchbook -7 +100)
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com