NFL Marketwatch - Week 17
12/31/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 17
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 16 was the Christmas gift the sportsbooks have been waiting
for all season. All sportsbooks reported another solid weekend with
most retaining between 4-5% of their handle. The final two weeks of the NFL regular
season always carry a lot of surprises. The old saying holds true this time
of year, "Misery loves company." The role of the spoiler is a powerful motivator
in the final weeks of the season. Teams with nothing to play
for come out and play their best games of the year against teams trying to make
the playoffs. The big decisions for the books were Tampa, a 14-point underdog, beating
New Orleans; Carolina, a 9-point underdog,
pounding the New York Giants; and the New York Jets, which opened as 7-point
underdogs,
spoiling Indy's undefeated season. Chicago
beating Minnesota on Monday Night Football was the final nail in the coffin
for the betting public. The sportsbook industry looks to continue this positive
momentum into the final Sunday of the regular season. As we mentioned in last
week's column, the last two weeks of the NFL regular season historically favor
betting home underdogs. There is a good chance for the sports betting industry
to close out the regular season on a high note.
Our Games to Watch continued its wining ways, going
2-1, and for the season putting us above .500 and back to even money, 23-21-2, 52.3%.
It's been a tough year for betting against the public, but we've stuck to our guns
and are in a good position to capitalize on the Public's tendency to overvalue road
favorites in the last two weeks of the regular season. We'll look to finish the
season strong -- and in the black for our fifth consecutive year.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public took it on the chin, going 3-5. For
the season, that puts the Public in the red with a record of 61-60 = 50.4%. To put this into perspective:
over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on
one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say,
the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 17 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the
sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found
on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting
opportunities.
We anticipate Chicago, San Fran, Atlanta, Baltimore, San
Diego, and Tennessee to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
This match-up is seeing a huge, overwhelming landslide of
bets coming down on the Chicago Bears. Almost 90% of bets are taking the
Bears, who are playing the hapless 2-13 Detroit Lions. We see this as a
good opportunity to "Bet Against the Public" -- and grab some good
contrarian line movement. The line opened at Detroit +2.5 and has made a
huge move to Detroit +3, with good "vig/odds" pricing.
In addition to line movement value, we like Detroit for a
number of other reasons, including:
-
Selling Chicago's impressive Monday
Night showing.
-
Smart Money play triggered by 5Dimes as
alerted by SportsInsights' Premium Pro feature (47-40, + 8.2
units).
-
In addition, we like home dogs --
particularly at this time of year.
Detroit Lions +3
+105 (Bet at CRIS +3
+105)
San Francisco 49ers vs. St Louis Rams
This is an interesting match-up that one of our
offshore contacts circled. Our contact said that a few of his sharpest
bettors got down on the St. Louis Rams. Indeed, SportsInsights had a Smart Money play triggered by Carib (33-16, +12.9
units). The Rams are seeing less than 25% of spread bets. Note
that because many of the games are relatively "meaningless" with
respect to the playoffs, there is less action on the games this
week.
The 1-14 Rams are at home -- taking on the 7-8 San
Francisco 49ers. As our readers know, we are keen on home dogs near
the end of the NFL season. This is a divisional rivalry -- so we
should have a "live" home dog going, stirred up by the home crowd
in the season finale. Finally, if you shop around, you can now grab
extra value by getting 7.5 points -- more than a TD worth of a point
spread.
St Louis Rams +7.5 -105 (Bet
at Bodog +7 -105)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
This is a classic Pepto Bismol game. Baltimore is playing for a
playoff spot while Oakland is wrapping up another abysmal season. Public
money has bid up the point spread from Baltimore -10 to -11. This game
is one of the heavier-bet games this week because of the playoff implications
and is seeing 75% of the bets take the heavily-favored Ravens.
We see a lot of value in getting Oakland
as +11 home dog. "Motivation" -- such as playoff positioning
-- is often over-valued by the betting Public. As a result, sportsbooks'
odds are also typically inflated. Professional athletes have pride -- and
Oakland does not want to be a doormat. Oakland, the "home dogs,"
will be particularly "live" home dogs at this time of the
season. They can give it "their all" for the last game of the
season. The Raiders -- and their home crowd will certainly be into
it!
Oakland Raiders +11 (Bet at CRIS +11
-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game has several interesting storylines. But
first, let's take a closer look at the NFL Marketplace. Despite well over 80% of the bets
coming on Tenn, "Sharp Money" has been coming in on Seattle.
We have the familiar pattern of "reverse line movement" -- with
the line moving from Tenn -5.5 down to -4 -- even with the vast majority of
bets taking Tenn. Big money is getting down on Seattle. There is
still plenty of
value in getting Seattle as a +4.5 home dog. Now, let's take a look at
some background.
After compiling the NFL's best record last year,
Tennessee started this season by going 0-6. They then won 7 of 8 games
to get close to the playoff picture -- only to lose last week to San
Diego. Tennessee's hot streak got some attention from the fans and
media -- and as a result, the Titans are grabbing a huge 85% of the bets
this week. We note, however, that both teams in this game are now out
of the playoff picture. There's a chance, however, that the Titans
will have more of a letdown after their heroic hot streak ended last
week.
Tennessee is coming
off a pounding from San Diego last week. Let's fade the Public, go
with the "Sharps" -- and take yet another "home dog."
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (Bet
at Bodog +4.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (23-21-2,
52.3%)
Detroit Lions
+3 +105 (Bet at CRIS +3
+105)
St Louis Rams +7
-105
(Bet
at Bodog +7 -105)
Oakland Raiders +11
(Bet at CRIS +11
-110)
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (Bet
at Bodog +4.5 -110)
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com