NFL Marketwatch - Week 15
12/18/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium
Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays
at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best
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Units |
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+2.4 |
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+13.5 |
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+12.1 |
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+1.5 |
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+18.4 |
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 15
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 14 was painful for the sportsbooks and our beloved
Games to Watch section. All sportsbooks reported losing between
2-5% of their handle. The week started off in a promising way as Cleveland beat Pittsburgh
outright on Thursday night football. However, the wheels came off the bus on Sunday
afternoon. Overall,
this has been a tough NFL season for the sportsbook industry. They haven't been able
to sustain any positive momentum from week to week. But the strong survive and
we'll look to finish the season strong.
Our Games to Watch dropped a goose egg, going
0-3, and for the season we're in the red, 19-20-1, 48.7%. We're picking
ourselves up off the ground, wiping off the dirt, and sticking to our guns. The
biggest mistake most novice sports bettors make is changing their bet amount
during winning streaks or losing streaks. Sharp bettors stick to their systems
for the entire season and never alter their bet amount. When games start going
your way, and they will, you want to bet your normal amount to take advantage of
the upswing.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in
games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had an impressive
week, going 5-2. For the season, that makes the Public a respectable 57-51 =
52.8%. To put this into perspective:
over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on
one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say,
the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 15 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the
sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found
on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting
opportunities.
We anticipate New England, Arizona, Houston, Minnesota, and
New Your Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This match-up fits our "contrarian sports investing
value" in several ways. First of all, a lot of "smart money"
is coming in on Pittsburgh, with the line moving from its opener of Pitt -1 to
-2 -- even with two-thirds of the bets taking Green Bay. This kind of
reverse line movement means larger bets -- and bigger money -- is more getting
down on the Steelers. SportsInsights.com's proprietary software has many
Smart Money plays being triggered on Pittsburgh. In addition, our offshore
contact, although still licking his wounds from last weekend, agreed that
"his sharps liked the Steelers."
Another reason to like the Steelers is that we can totally
"buy low and sell high." Pittsburgh is on a downward spiral,
losing five games in a row, while Green Bay has won five in a row.
Pittsburgh's "playoff backs" are against the wall and we expect them
to come out smoking at home. The Steelers went from a 6-2 record to a 6-7
record during this streak, losing five close games to generally good
teams. The Public is overwhelmingly on
Green Bay and this game is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. Take
the contrarian value and shop for the Pittsburgh -1 line.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play solid
football. However, we still feel that the media is causing the Vikings
to be over-valued in the NFL Marketplace. With all of the hype about
Brett Favre and the 11-2 Vikings, there is bound to be an inflated
line. SportsInsights betting percentages verify that the Public is
overwhelmingly on Minnesota. Including all types of bets, a huge 80%
of bets are taking the Vikings minus a chunk of points (-9). Even more
telling is that the "junk bets" such as teasers and parlays are
going the way of the Vikings in a huge way: 85%! The Public loves
these types of "teasers and parlay" bets, showing that this is a
particularly big Public game.
These sports marketplace indicators make us want to
"bet against the Public." At a quick glance, even contrarian
bettors will cringe when they see this play. The mighty 11-2 Vikings against
a mediocre 5-8 Carolina Panther team? We say: take out your holiday
eggnog -- and Pepto Bismol -- and "man-up" with this Sunday Night
Football play. The Carolina Panthers have the sixth best passing
defense this year and have scored almost as many points as they have given
up this year. The line has been bid up from its opener of Carolina +7
all the way up to Carolina +10. That is some huge line value.
Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL regular season has been a good
period to bet on home dogs. Take Carolina plus the huge points at
home.
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is not the most glamorous games, but the NFL
sports marketplace and SportsInsights' indicators had us keying in on this
game. Keep your Pepto Bismol out because we like the 1-12 Tampa Bay
Bucs in this match-up. About three out of every four bets is taking
the Seattle Seahawks. The "junk bet" indicator that often
flashes the "square Public's" views has a huge 81% of bets on
Seattle.
Even with all of the betting activity on Seattle, there
is "reverse line movement", with the line moving its opener of
Tampa Bay +8.5 at CRIS (other books opened at TB +7), all the way down to TB
+6.5. That is a huge line movement through the key football number of
7. The "smart money" really likes TB to move the line that
much. Let's ride on the coattails of the "sharps" and
"bet against the Public." TB has been on a slide, so let's
hope to "buy" them at this recent low. If TB is going to
"get off the ground," getting 6.5 points against a mediocre 5-8
Seattle team is a good place to start.
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-20-1,
48.7%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 -110 (Bet at SIA -1 -110)
Carolina Panthers +9
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com