NFL Marketwatch - Week 14
12/11/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
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NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 14
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 witnessed a major turnaround for the sports
betting industry. All sportsbooks reported a monster weekend - with most
retaining well over 7% of their handle. Oakland, a +14.5 underdog, winning
outright -- coupled with Detroit, Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis all covering
for the first time in my lifetime resulted in one of the most profitable Sundays
in years. And let's not forget Miami shocking New England -- and Arizona crushing
one of the Public's favorite teams: the Minnesota Vikings.
Look for handles to remain healthy as the Public's pockets are still
flush with cash.
Our Games to Watch returned to its winning ways, going
2-1, and for the season, 19-17-1, 52.7%. We're looking to ride this
positive momentum into the final weeks of the season.. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public had a tough week, 1-7. For the season,
that still makes the Public a respectable 52-49 = 51.5%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in
games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record
of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone
the way of the "Square," but are slowly giving up ground.
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 14 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the
sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found
on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting
opportunities.
We anticipate Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego, and
Arizona to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a hugely-profitable week last Sunday, our offshore
contacts were very talkative this week. One game that was mentioned by
several line-makers was the Jacksonville-Miami match-up. Miami's big win
over New England has people talking -- and believing -- that the Dolphins are a
solid team. Indeed, about two-thirds of bets are taking the visiting, 6-6
Dolphins, over a 7-5 Jaguar team.
In addition to "betting against the Public" --
there is "reverse line movement" in the NFL marketplace, with CRIS
opening at Jax -2.5 and ticking to the key number of Jax -3. This is an
indication that "sharps" and "big money" are taking
Jacksonville. We like "selling" Miami's big winning over New England.
Jacksonville, a solid playoff contender, is undervalued at -2, at home.
Jacksonville -2 -110
San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
This should be a great game: two first-place
teams! This is potentially a playoff preview -- yet the Public is
betting this game like they know the
score. They can't believe San Diego is getting +3. This shows
how the general Public has the philosophy of "what have you done
for me lately?" The Chargers have won seven games in a
row -- and have one of the league's better point differentials at
+100.
On the other hand, Dallas just lost a tough game to
their divisional rivals, the New York Giants. We're going to
"buy" the Cowboys after their loss and "sell" the
Chargers at their recent "high." The Chargers look like they
are currently overvalued, with a huge 80% of all bets (including teasers and
parlays) landing on the red-hot Chargers. Interestingly, there are
indications that "sharps" are also taking the Cowboys.
Although the line has stayed at Dallas -3, the odds have shifted slightly
from the generally-available opener of Dallas -3 +105 to Dallas -3-110 --
even with almost all the bets going on San Diego. This is a relatively
large move because the line is at the key number of 3.
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
This is another battle of first-place teams. The
Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have the headlines this year -- but
the Cincinnati Bengals have quietly put up a 9-3 record. One
of our contacts alerted us that very early sharp money pushed the point
spread from its opener of Minnesota -7 down to Minny -6.5 almost
immediately. We don't often see such fast action -- but our readers
know that we like to follow the "sharps."
Bets are split almost 50/50 -- but we like the
"smart money" "reverse line movement." In
addition, we like the fact that the Bengals have been mostly "under the
radar" while the Vikings have been in the headlines constantly all
season -- with Brett Favre leading the Vikings to a 10-2 record. We'll
take the Bengals, plus a chunk of points, against a Viking team that showed
a chink in its armor last week -- with a loss against a solid Arizona team.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (19-17-1, 52.7%)
Jacksonville -2 -110
Dallas Cowboys -3 -110
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com