NFL Marketwatch - Week 13
12/04/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL
Marketwatch, where Daniel
Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight
into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL
Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every
Saturday afternoon.
Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL
Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the
sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the
public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the
award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to
uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line,
then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium
Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays
at 6:20pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best
Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 13
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 13 was a grind-it-out week for the sportsbooks.
A
lot of work and not much to show for it; most sportsbooks reported being flat to
retaining 1% of their handle. There was little to cheer about this Thanksgiving
holiday, as Detroit and Oakland got the stuffing kicked out of them. Sunday helped
to turn things around for the books. Buffalo winning outright against Miami, coupled
with Tampa and Cleveland covering -- helped to break up a lot of Parlays/Teasers.
Look for handles to remain healthy as the Public's pockets are still
flush with cash.
Our Games to Watch was flat for the week, going 0-0-1, and for the season, 17-16-1, 51.5%. We're
looking forward to returning to our winning ways. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public also recorded a Push, 3-3. For the season, that still makes the Public an impressive
51-42 = 54.8%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in
games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record
of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone
the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 13 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique
approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the
sports betting marketplace. We utilize the betting tools and statistics found
on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting
opportunities.
We anticipate Denver, Houston, New Orleans, San Diego, and
Minnesota to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans have been on a roll, so you would think that
they might become over-valued. This might normally be the case, but not
when you are facing one of the league's two remaining undefeated teams.
The Indianapolis Colts are 11-0 (as are the New Orleans Saints) -- and look like
the "class" of the league.
After an 0-6 start, the Titans have put together a 5-game
winning streak and still have playoff aspirations. They have been doing
what they need to do in order to win games and the NFL "marketplace"
shows that the "sharps" are indeed getting down on the Titans.
With bets coming in about 50/50 in this match-up, the point spread moved off of
the key number Indy -7 down to Indy -6.5 -- meaning that some "big
money" moved the market.
This is currently the most heavily-bet game of the week --
so the "market action" in the NFL marketplace is that much more
significant. Our readers know that we love tailing the sharps -- and we
look for the Titans to be a real "live dog" in this match-up.
Take the points.
Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
This is a true "contrarian" week -- with our Games
to Watch betting against the league's two remaining undefeated
teams. Indeed, a linesman from one of the largest sportsbooks told us
this game had more of his book's Squares taking the Saints -- with junk --
than normal. SportsInsights' proprietary data shows that 90% of
"junk bets" -- such as teasers and parlays -- were coming in on
the powerhouse Saints.
With an overwhelming number of bets (both straight
point-spread bets and teasers/parlays) -- we like "selling" New
Orleans after their big Monday Night win over New England. In
addition, we like "buying"
Washington on an up-swing. Although last-place Washington is just 3-8,
they play in the tough NFC East Division and have been very
competitive. They have been outscored by just 35 points during the
season in total -- and getting double-digit points at home looks like a good
value. The Redskins have the #2 pass defense in the league -- which
might help them stay relatively close to the high-octane Saints
offense. Take your indigestion meds and take the points.
Washington Redskins +10 -110 (Bet at
SIA +10 -110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
A huge 85% of straight bets are taking the visiting Vikings
-4 points against a very solid Arizona Cardinal team. Oh -- and did we say
that the Cardinals are also a first-place team like the Vikings? This is a
"contrarian selection" that combines aspects of value from various
sources. Firstly, we love to "bet against the Public" when there
is an overwhelming number of bets taking one side. This
"angle" is particularly strong when statistics and analysis indicate
that the bets should be more evenly split -- and that the game should be
a good one...
Another aspect that we love is "media
coverage." All you see on the ESPN is how Favre is back in his
prime. We see Brett Favre doing all kinds of advertisements -- some of
which are actually quite witty. We don't argue that Minnesota, at
10-1, isn't a powerhouse team. We do feel, however, that this kind of
attention leads to over-valuation. Look for Arizona to give Minny a heavy dose of reality.
How often do you get a first-place team -- at home -- getting more than a
field-goal's worth of points? The Cards have quietly built a 7-4
record and are undervalued.
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Bet at
BetUS +3.5 -110)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s
Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (17-16-1, 51.5%)
Tennessee Titans +6.5
Washington Redskins +10 (Bet at
SIA +10 -110)
Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Bet at
BetUS +3.5 -110)
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com