NFL Marketwatch - Week 12
11/27/2009 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition  of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch!  The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games.  If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:20pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport! 

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 12

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 11 was lackluster for the sportsbook industry; most sportsbooks reported being flat to retaining 1% of their handle.  Oakland as a +9 point favorite and KC as a 10.5 pt favorite winning outright were huge for the books. These two games single-handedly blew-up a lot of the junk (parlays/teasers). There were a good amount of frustrated sports bettors holding parlay tickets with  2 out of 3 or 4 out 5 correct.  Look for handles to dramatically increase this week due to 3 NFL games on Thanksgiving, plus an exciting Monday Night Football match-up between New Orleans and New England.  

Our Games to Watch had a major setback, posting the big goose egg, going  0-3, and for the season, 17-16, 51.5%.  We're looking for a big bounce-back weekend.  SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public had a solid weekend, going 6-4. For the season, that still makes the Public an impressive 48-39 = 55.2%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%.  Needless to say, the first part of the 2009 NFL season has gone the way of the "Square."

View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx

NFL Week 12  – Games to Watch

The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.  We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint the week's most profitable betting opportunities.  We normally post three selections, but this week, we have just one selection.  This is partly due to little line movement in the NFL sports marketplace, as well as the Thanksgiving holiday. 

We anticipate that Indy, Miami, Seattle and New England will be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans

This is the one game that had interesting "market action" in the NFL sports marketplace this week.  Our main offshore contact told us that big early money came in on Tennessee, pushing the line from Tenn Pick'em to Tenn -3.  SportsInsights' analytical tools had a Steam Move triggered by CRIS on Tenn -2, +4.3 units.

To some, this game looks like a "soft line."  Why should the last-place Titans be favored over the first-place Cardinals?  This is an interesting match-up because it has a lot of storylines:

  • The 7-3 Cards are in first-place -- but in the weak NFC West Division.  The Cards have also played a relatively weak schedule, with their opponents winning about 44% of their games.

  • The 4-6 Titans are in last-place, but in the solid AFC South Division.  The Titans have also played a schedule that is tougher than average, with their opponents winning about 51% of their games.  

  • After an 0-6 start, the Titans can actually make a run at the playoffs if they continue their four-game winning streak.  For those that forgot, Tennessee was one of the NFL's elite teams last year, going 13-3.

  • During the Titans' four-game winning streak, they have two blowout victories, showing that they might "be back." 

  • The Cardinals have mediocre stats in almost every category except for passing stats.  Kurt Warner, at age 38, is looking to lead his team into the playoffs with his 94.4 QB rating.    

  • The Titans have the league's best rushing offense, but their defense has struggled against the pass this year.  

  • This game has playoff implications for both teams, especially the Titans.  Home field advantage may play a key role in this game.  

As usual, we will go with the "big money."  Give the points and take the Titans. 

Tennessee Titans -3  +105

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for the NFL.

Games to Watch (17-16, 51.5%)
Tennessee Titans -3  +105

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com