|
|
Units |
|
|
+8.3 |
|
|
+4.4 |
|
|
+7.1 |
|
|
-1.4 |
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 11
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week
10 went the way of the sportsbook; most books reported retaining
4-5% of their handle. Washington winning by 10 points was the day's biggest
decision. That game in itself broke up the majority of "junk", Teaser and Parlay bets.
In most weeks, all the sportsbooks need is one big decision like Washington (winning outright over Denver)
-- to have a positive day. But the hits kept coming
in NFL Week 10. Carolina and Green Bay also winning outright helped to break
up any remaining junk. St. Louis and Tampa Bay covering
ensured a profitable Sunday for the books. However, NFL Week 11 is shaping up to be
another "lopsided-bet Sunday" with 8 games offering point spreads of at least
6.5pts and at least 77% of the bets coming in on one side. There will
be some big decisions this Sunday.
Our Games to Watch continued its positive momentum, posting another
2-1 record and for the season, 17-13, 56.7%. SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over
64% of the action on one side, the Public had back-to-back losing Sunday's,
going 2-5. But for the season, that still makes the Public an impressive
42-35 = 54.5%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in
games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record
of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the first half of the NFL season has gone
the way of the "Square."
View Last Week’s Column:
http://www.sportsinsights.com/sportsmarketwatch/sportsmarketwatch.aspx
NFL Week 11 – Games to Watch
The NFL Marketwatch column takes a truly unique approach to sports
betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace.
We utilize the betting tools and statistics found on SportsInsights.com to pinpoint
the week's most profitable betting opportunities.
We anticipate any game involving Cleveland, Washington, St.
Louis, Tampa Bay, or
Detroit to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Luckily for the
sportsbooks, Cleveland is playing Detroit this weekend. Look for handles to
increase this week due to a lot of lopsided match-ups, plus the addition of
another Thursday night game. Visit
SportsInsights.com
to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL
game.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
This selection makes the "sports fan" in us
cringe. However, our readers know that we always follow the contrarian
market action -- and grab the best values we see in the "sports betting
marketplace." So -- take out that Pepto Bismol and be ready to
"man-up" for this game. Minnesota, at 8-1, looks like the
"real-deal" and is certainly one of this year's NFL powerhouses.
They have outscored their opponents by an average of about 10 points in a tough
NFC North Division. Most bettors think that the Vikings will beat up on
the 3-6 Seattle Seahawks
Indeed, 3 out of 4 bets are taking the Vikings at home this
week, even minus the 11 points. We note, however, that the 3-6 Seahawks,
have scored about as many points as they have given up. Seattle has shown
some spark this season with two of their wins blowout victories. The "smart
money" seems to agree that the Seahawks are better than their record shows,
as evidenced by the "reverse line movement" in this game. We'll
take the double-digit underdog and sell the high-flying Minnesota
Vikings.
Seattle Seahawks +11 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +11 -105)
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Talk about teams going in opposite directions...
After a hot start -- including a win over the Patriots, the Jets have lost 4 of
their last 5 games. Meanwhile, after a slow start, the Patriots are
looking like their old "powerhouse" selves, beating Tennessee 59-0 and
TB 35-7, along the way to grabbing first place in the AFC East. Many
bettors are thinking that the Pats will avenge their loss to the Jets in Week 2
-- and give the Jets a spanking at Gillette Stadium.
At the time of this writing, this game is the heaviest-bet
game of the week. In addition, an overwhelming 80% of bets are taking the
Patriots to beat the Jets by more than double-digit points. Our readers,
however, know what this means. We want to "bet against the
Public" -- and we like the Jets, plus the double-digit points for a number of
reasons:
-
We see our old favorite "reverse line
movement" in this game's sports marketplace action. Even with
almost all the bets coming down on New England, the line ticked down from
the opener of Jets +11, down to +10.5. Let's grab the sharp's
coattails and take the double-digit underdog.
-
This is a good divisional rivalry. The Jets have
a good young QB and should be up for this game.
-
Buy the Jets at this recent "low."
-
Sell the Pats after some of their recent blowout
wins.
New York Jets +10.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
One of our more colorful offshore contacts circled this
game early in the week. We spoke to this line-maker and he was carrying on about some of his
sportsbook's sharpest bettors piling onto Houston early in
the week. The line opened at Houston -3.5 but moved to -4.5 at most books
by Monday! SportsInsights flagged this move as "steam
moves" early in the week.
Our contact said that Tennessee was attracting some
Square money because they reeled off three wins in a row. However, the
wins have been against the likes of mediocre teams like Jacksonville, San
Francisco, and Buffalo. The last win was a blow-out win of 41-17 over
Buffalo. Needless to say, our guy thinks the Titans are overrated right
now. On the other hand, Houston lost a very tough decision to undefeated
Indianapolis -- at Indy -- by a score of 20-17, two weeks ago.
Houston, with its 5-4 record, looks a bit undervalued,
while Tennessee is overrated with its current three-game winning streak.
Let's "buy low" and "sell high" and take a "surprising"
favorite as a contrarian play ("surprising" because we don't often
find value on favorites).
Houston Texans -4.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for the NFL.
Games to Watch (17-13,
56.7%)
Seattle Seahawks +11 -105 (Bet at Sports Interaction +11 -105)
New York Jets +10.5
Houston Texans -4.5
It should be another exciting
NFL Weekend.
Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NFL Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com