Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 4
9/25/2009  
by The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2009-10 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!

Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.

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Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 4

Recapping Week 3

Middle Tennessee State forced four turnovers in its win over Maryland, while Tennessee took advantage of an apparent "swine flu outbreak" to keep Florida close, giving Marketwatch two victories last week. Our one loss came at the hands of Miami (FL) and Jacory Harris, who went off against Georgia Tech.

Overall Record = 6-3 (66.7%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 4 – Games to Watch

Wake Forest vs. Boston College (9/26 - 2 p.m. EST)

Boston College struggled in its conference opener Saturday, totaling a measly 54 yards of offense against Clemson in the 25-7 loss. Wake Forest beat up on FCS opponent Elon 35-7 to improve their record to 2-1 on the season.

Boston College opened as a 3-point home favorite at CRIS and has shrunk to a 1.5-point favorite. The public likes the Eagles, who are receiving 54% of spread bets and 61% of parlay bets. There has been significant line movement in this game, triggering five Steam Moves. Four of these moves are on Boston College, but each one on the Eagles is from a sportsbook with a losing record on the season. One positive Steam Move has been triggered at 5Dimes (32-21, +7.9 units), playing on Wake Forest. We'll go against the negative Steam Moves and follow 5Dimes. Give us Wake and the points.

Wake Forest +1.5

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech (9/26 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

Last week's 33-17 win against Georgia Tech was Miami's second straight victory against a Top 25 opponent. Quarterback Jacory Harris, who currently ranks 3rd in the nation in quarterback rating, has come out of nowhere to thrust himself into the early Heisman Trophy discussion. Virginia Tech is coming off a dramatic 16-15 victory over Nebraska, in which Tyrod Taylor hooked up with Dyrell Roberts for an 11-yard touchdown with 21 seconds remaining in the comeback victory.

Virginia Tech opened as a 1-point favorite at CRIS and one-sided public betting has moved the line to Miami -2.5. The Hurricanes are garnering 73% of spread bets, 66% of moneyline bets and 69% of parlay bets, causing the significant line movement. Six positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on Virginia Tech, including one at Phoenix (13-6, +6.49 units). Marketwatch went against Miami last week and lost. However, we like Frank Beamer's Hokies at home and have confidence going with the Smart Money.

Virginia Tech +3

Washington vs. Stanford (9/26 - 9 p.m EST)

Erik Folk's 22-yard field goal, with three seconds left, gave Washington and head coach Steve Sarkisian a stunning 16-13 upset victory over then third-ranked USC Saturday. Stanford racked up 211 rushing yards, including two touchdowns from Toby Gerhart, in their 42-17 win over San Jose State last week.

Stanford opened as a 6.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavily backing underdog Washington. The Huskies are currently receiving 66% of spread bets, 83% of moneyline bets and 74% of parlay bets, yet Stanford has grown to an 8.5-point favorite. This reverse-line movement has triggered six positive Smart Money Plays, including one at Phoenix (13-6, +6.49 units), and one Steam Move at 5Dimes (32-21, +7.9 units) on Stanford. These are very strong moves, therefore we'll give the points and take Stanford in our final game of the week.

Stanford -8

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.

Games to Watch (6-3)
Wake Forest +1.5 
Virginia Tech +3
Stanford -8

It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com