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Sports Marketwatch -
College Football Edition
NCAA Football - Bowl Edition IV
12/31/2009
by The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the
2009-10 edition of
NCAA
Football Marketwatch . The team at Sports
Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports
betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing
and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week
in College Football.
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Sports Marketwatch – Bowl Edition IV
Recapping Bowl Edition III
Everyone knew about the contrasting offensive styles in our last
match-up, with Air Force's triple option attack going up against
Houston's multi-receiver spread sets and aerial approach. The crucial unit,
though, turned out to be Air Force's pass defense. They intercepted Case Keenum
a whopping six times and held him to a season-low 222 yards passing. The
Falcons also executed offensively, as both Asher Clark and Jared Tew ran for
100+ yards and two touchdowns en route to a 47-20 victory over the Cougars.
Regular Season Record = 24-18-1 (57.1%)
Bowl Record = 3-1 (75%)
Warning to all new readers of the
NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in
order to follow our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be
prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of
this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if
a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every
week is line value. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to
come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch
LSU vs. Penn State (1/1 - 1:00 pm EST)
After starting the season with
five straight wins, LSU struggled against the top teams in the SEC, losing close
games to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi. Like LSU, Penn State feasted on its
weaker conference opponents this season, but did not have enough firepower to
compete with Iowa and Ohio State for the Big 10 title.
Penn State opened
as a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavily behind LSU. Sixty-five
percent of spread bets are on the Tigers, which shrank the line to -2 early on
at many sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. Four positive Smart Money plays
have been triggered on the Nittany Lions, including one each at ABC (+9.24
units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units). With no recognizable Steam on Penn
State to push their line back up, the consistent pounding of public support on
LSU has just dropped the line to a pick at many books, including Grande, BetUS,
Jamaica and Bodog. Go out and grab this value on a public dog with lots of sharp
money behind it.
Penn State -110
Northern Illinois vs.
South Florida (1/2 - 12:00 pm EST)
Northern Illinois finished their
season on a sour note, losing their final two games against Ohio and Central
Michigan, the top two teams in the MAC. After a hot start, South Florida also
struggled down the stretch, dropping five of their final seven games.
South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and public betting has pushed
the line to -7. The Bulls are currently receiving 73% of spread bets, yet
SportsInsights' Betting Systems have found value on the Huskies, triggering four
positive Smart Money plays on Northern Illinois. Like our first game, two of
these moves are from ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units), giving
us the confidence to go against the public percentages and take the Huskies +7.
Northern Illinois +7
Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State (1/2 -
2:00 pm EST)
Coming off big wins against Tennessee and LSU,
Mississippi was flat in their final game of the regular season, losing 41-27 to
in-state rival Mississippi State. In the 2009 edition of the Oklahoma Bedlam
Football Game, the Cowboys got thoroughly dominated by the Sooners, mustering a
measley 109 yards of total offense in the 27-0 loss.
Mississippi opened
as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 67% of spread bets.
Sharp money has jumped all of this game, triggering six positive Smart Money
plays on Oklahoma State, including moves from, yes, you guessed it, ABC (+9.24
units) and Cata/Vegas Vic (+20.26 units). The Rebels are a 3-point favorite at
most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but Mississippi is giving an extra
half-point at Carib, moving the spread off the key number of three. We like the
Cowboys and are grabbing the three and a half while it's still out there.
Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights' analysis of this week’s Games to Watch.
Games to Watch (27-19-1)
Penn State -110
Northern Illinois +7
Oklahoma State +3.5 (Carib)
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch
Games to Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time
updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday
with the new edition of the NCAA Football Sports
Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
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