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Sports Marketwatch -
College Football Edition
NCAA Football Week 13
11/22/2008
by Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the
NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at
Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football
point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports
betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing
and the Sharps are pounding. Let's take a look at what’s in store for this week in
College Football.
Sports Marketplace – NCAA Week 13
Recapping Week 12
This is our first year providing the NCAA Football Marketwatch,
and we finally produced another 3-0 week. Auburn wasn't able pull the upset over
Georgia, but they did beat the 10-point spread. Boston College held on for the
outright win over Florida State, and Houston easily beat Tulsa 70-30 to complete
our second 3-0 week.
If you enjoy the insights this column provides, please be sure to visit
SportsInsights.com. We are the leader in sports
betting information and statistics.
Overall = 16-19-1 = 45.7%
NCAA WEEK 13
We've got four top-25 match ups this weekend. The biggest involves two top-5
teams in a Big 12 showdown with huge implications for the conference and
national championship picture. No. 2 Texas Tech travels to Norman to take on the
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners. A win by the Red Raiders would leave them one win away
from the Big 12 Championship Game, but a loss would likely create a three-way
tie in the Big 12 South Division between Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas. Our
second match up takes place between two teams hoping to break into the BCS. No.
14 BYU hopes to hand No. 7 Utah its first loss of the season and end their BCS
hopes. In the Big Ten, No. 15 Michigan State travels to Happy Valley to take on
No. 8 Penn State. The Spartans still have a shot at a Rose Bowl berth, but need
a win and an Ohio State loss against Michigan. The final top-25 showdown takes
place in the Big East between No. 20 Pittsburgh and No. 19 Cincinnati.
Warning to all new readers of the
NCAA
Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow
our selections, you’ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take
up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column
is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too
go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line
value. You’ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We
typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 games, as well as the rivalry games
as the season winds down. Mississippi-LSU, NC State-North Carolina,
Illinois-Northwestern, and Tennessee-Vanderbilt should
all garner attention from the betting public. Visit
SportsInsights.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple
online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 13 – Games to Watch
Boise State vs Nevada (11/22 4P)
Boise State can clinch the WAC title with a win this week, and they will also
remain in contention for their second BCS bowl game in three seasons. The
Broncos feature the nation's second-best scoring defense (10.3 points per game)
and rank 12th in total defense (285.5 yards per game.) Boise State features a
balanced attack on offense, led by freshman quarterback Kellen Moore (20
touchdowns, 6 interceptions) and senior tailback Ian Johnson (NCAA record 54
career rushing touchdowns.) Last week the Broncos gained 315 yards on the ground
against Idaho, despite Johnson only gaining 14 yards.
Nevada is trying to strengthen its bowl position with its third consecutive
win. The Wolf Pack feature the nation's top rushing offense and the No. 2
rushing defense. They average 325 yards per game on the ground; they are the
only team in the nation to average over 300. The ground attack already features
two 1,000 yard rushers in tailback Vai Taua (1,284 yards) and quarterback Colin
Kaepernick (1,017 yards), who are the top two rushers in the conference. The
Wolf Pack defense allows and average of 63.9 yards on the ground. They also
feature an intimidating pass rush, with defensive ends Dontay Moch and Kevin
Basped (15.5 sacks combined.)
This could be another high-scoring affair after Boise State's four overtime
69-67 victory last year. That game was the highest scoring affair in Football
Subdivision Series history since official stats started being kept in 1937.
Boise State opened as 6-point road favorites at Pinnacle and most other books
tracked by Sports Insights. At Pinnacle the line remained Boise State -6, with
only the money behind the spread changing, despite the Broncos receiving over
80% of spread bets and over 90% of parlay bets. At BetOnline, the line actually
moved to Boise State -5.5 with the heavy public backing, and that triggered a
Smart Money play on Nevada at BetOnline (26-15, +8.32). We like homedogs when
they're getting getting a touchdown, and there are still some books like The Pig
and SIA offering the Wolf Pack +7.
Nevada +7
Oregon State vs Arizona (11/22 7P)
Oregon State comes into this match up controlling its own destiny. If the
Beavers can win their final two games, they are the Pac-10 Champions and will be
playing in their first Rose Bowl since 1965. If they lose, there are a variety
of bowl scenarios for Oregon State. The Beavers have won five straight behind a
ground attack led by freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who leads the
Pac-10 with 1233 yards. Oregon State's defense has turned up the heat on
opposing quarterbacks recently with 19 sacks during the five-game winning
streak.
Arizona is bowl eligible for the first time in 10 years, but they suffered an
embarrassing 55-45 loss last week to Oregon, while allowing 45 points and 411
yards to the Ducks in the first half. The Wildcats almost overcame a 31-point
deficit, but they couldn't make the final jump late. The defense had been ranked
in the top-25 nationally recently, but last week's loss didn't help those
rankings. Arizona's offense can put up some points, as they average 39.7 points
per game. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is a monster at 6'6" and 260 pounds, and he
has eight touchdowns on the season.
Arizona opened as 3-point home favorites despite last week's showing against
Oregon. So it's no surprise that the Beavers are drawing huge backing from the
public. Oregon State is garnering 68% of spread bets and 84% of parlay bets from
the public. That backing has pushed the line to Arizona -2.5. The Wildcats are
4-1 at home this season, including 5-0 against the spread in Arizona Stadium.
Oregon State may be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Oregon and a Rose
Bowl berth. We'll take the home Wildcats to bounce back and end the Beavers win
streak.
Arizona -2.5
Arkansas vs Mississippi State (11/22 2:30PM)
Arkansas comes in needing wins in its final two games to qualify for a bowl in
Bobby Petrino's first season as head coach. Even two wins won't guarantee the
Razorbacks a bowl berth. Arkansas quarterback Casey Dick suffered a head injury
two weeks ago against South Carolina, and he was replaced by his brother Nathan
Dick. Both quarterbacks could see action against the Bulldogs. The Razorbacks
are giving up 166.2 rushing yards per game on the season. Mississippi State
couldn't beat Alabama for the third consecutive season, and the loss ended any
possibility for a bowl game. Head Coach Sylvester Croom is on the hot seat. The
Bulldogs are only averaging 104.5 yards rushing per game. The passing game
hasn't fared much better with an 178.5 average. Their passing defense has been
solid in giving up only 154.5 yards per game. The defense held No. 1 Alabama to
their season averages in terms of yards last week, as 16 of the Crimson Tide's
32 points can be blamed on MSU's kicking game. The game opened as a pick at
Pinnacle, and it moved to Mississippi State -1.5 a few hours later. Since then
the line has steadily moved in the other direction, and Arkansas is now a
1.5-point favorite. The Razorbacks are receiving 70% of the public's spread bets
and 52% of parlay bets. We'll take another home underdog in Mississippi State.
Mississippi State +2 (ABC) So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to
Watch for NCAA Football Week 12.
Games to Watch (16-19-1)
Nevada +7
Arizona -2.5
Mississippi State +2 (ABC)
It should be another exciting week for NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketplace Games to
Watch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the
latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. Also check
out our new feature
Campus Reports for NCAA Football information you won't find anywhere else.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the
NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Mike Norris at Sports Insights
SportsInsights.com
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