Sports Marketwatch

NBA Edition

3/21/2008 4:15 PM EST

By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!  The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, by 5PM, Eastern Time. 

The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding.  We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition

Recapping Last Week’s Action

Last Friday’s Marketwatch plays went 1-2, with Charlotte the only winner, hanging close enough to Houston to grab the cover.  Indiana and Toronto lost by 19 and 32 points, respectively, which didn’t cut it.  The NBA Marketwatch slipped to a sub-par 12-14. 

2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 12-14-1 = 46.2%

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports Marketwatch 3/21/08 – Games to Watch

Minnesota Timberwolves +6 over Indiana Pacers

Our oddsmaker contacts told us that early “sharp money” on the Timberwolves reduced the line from Minny +6 down to Minny +5.5.  SportsInsights.com’s stats verify the “smart money” move.  The line opened at Minny +6, and even with the public pounding the Pacers at a rate of 3 out of every 4 bets, the line moved down.  This is opposite the direction we would expect, due to larger bet-sizes (big money!) overwhelming Joe Public’s pounding of Indy, but with smaller-sized amounts. 

Minnesota is no longer the league’s worst team, but they still don’t get any respect.  Indiana is also a mediocre team, winning less than 40% of their games.  The “smart money” sees value on the Timberwolves plus the six points in this matchup.  There is still a +6 available at the Matchbook sports exchange at reasonable vig.  Grab it while you can.

Minnesota Timberwolves +6

Memphis Grizzlies +2 over New York Knicks

This is a battle of two last place teams, both winning an anemic 25% of their games.  SportsInsights’ analytical tools highlighted this game for both “steam moves” and “smart money” line action.

With almost two-thirds of the bets coming in on the Knicks, the line moved a huge 2.5 points in the direction of Memphis (!!), from the Knicks -4 to Knick -1.5.  According to the line history that can be found at SportsInsights (from many of the best-known sportsbooks and casinos), large amounts of money started hitting the books all morning until early afternoon, driving the line down to NY -1.5.  We want to be on the side of this “big money” and will take the reduced +2 on the Grizzlies.  Try to shop for a good line as some of the “value” will be gone due to the large move in the point spread.

Memphis Grizzlies +2

Philadelphia 76ers +6 over Orlando Magic

Our first two selections featured mediocre and below-.500 teams.  This game, at least, should be a good match-up between two quality teams.  Philadelphia is surging, having won four in a row and eight of its last ten.  They are now solidly in the playoff hunt.  Meanwhile, Orlando has a comfortable first-place lead and is playing .643 ball. 

We don’t often like “buying a team” when it is hot.  However, the sports marketplace is again indicating the existence of “smart money” on the underdog.  Larger bet sizes on Philly have driven the line from Philly +6 down to Philly +5.5, even with Philly collecting just over 25% of the bets.  As usual, we’ll tag along with the “smart money” which puts us on the side of the sportsbooks, against the general public – and typically on underdogs.

Philadelphia 76ers +6

Games to Watch: 12-14-1 = 46.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves +6 (Matchbook)

Memphis Grizzlies +2 (Olympic)

Philadelphia 76ers +6 (Matchbook)

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com