Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/14/2008 4:04 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA
Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If
you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports
Marketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the Sports
Marketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday,
normally by around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line
managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the
Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for
today’s NBA games.Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action
Last Friday, the NBA Sports Marketwatch came back to earth,
going 1-2. Denver continued its winning ways at home, beating
San Antonio handily. However, our two “ugly” plays turned out to
be blowouts – going the “wrong” way. “Ugly” picks often get
blown out badly (which distorts sports fans views a bit).
However, more often than not (as in more than 50% of the time) –
the “ugly plays” stay close enough to eke out wins ATS (against
the spread).
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 11-12-1 = 47.8%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch 3/14/08 – Games to Watch
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 over Houston Rockets
SportsInsights’ analytical tools indicate that “smart money” is
on Charlotte. With only about 1 out of 3 bets coming in on
Charlotte, the line has moved from Houston -12.5 to Houston
-10.5. This is a sign that larger bets are coming in on
Charlotte.
Larger bets typically mean “smarter money.” We hope the “big
boys” are right because this certainly looks like an ugly pick.
Houston is the league’s hottest team, winning 20 in a row!
Houston is now tied with San Antonio for the second-best record
in the Western Conference, a single game behind the Lakers’
45-19 record.
Charlotte, on the other hand, is a lowly 6-23 on the road and is
playing .375 ball. This is definitely one of those games that
has the potential for a blowout. On the other hand, there looks
like there is value on Charlotte to stay within 10.5 of the
high-flying Rockets. Take Charlotte +10.5 and sell the Rockets
at “a high” – and join the “smart money!”
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 (Olympic)
Toronto Raptors +8 over Denver Nuggets
Our odds-maker contacts circled this game as another game with
“smart money” taking the underdog. Toronto is gathering about
one-third of the bets, but the line has moved from Denver -10
all the way down to Denver -7.5. This indicates that large bets
are coming in on Toronto and driving the line down.
Denver continues to have one of the best home records in the
league, with a strong 26-7 home performance. Toronto is a solid
team, with a better-than-.500 record – and has a very decent
15-17 record on the road. We like taking a very competitive
Toronto team plus 8 points – as does the “smart money.”
Toronto Raptors +8
Indiana Pacers +14.5 over Dallas Mavericks
Similar to the Charlotte selection (above), this has the makings
of being an ugly game. This is exactly the type of game that
“value investors” seek out… Dallas has just 4 losses at home
this season (1 loss off of Utah’s best home record). Indiana
looks like it will be overmatched – but 14.5 points is a big
spread for any game.
With less than one-third of the bets coming in on Indiana, the
line has grown from Indiana +12.5 to Indiana +14.5. We like
those extra two points of value – in addition to “Betting
Against the Public.”
Take the double-digit points (SIA currently has +14.5) and the
big dog at Dallas.
Indiana Pacers +14.5
(Sports Interaction)
Games to Watch: 11-12-1 = 47.8%
Charlotte Bobcats +10.5
Toronto Raptors +8
Indiana Pacers +14.5 (Sports Interaction)
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports
marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your
browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time
updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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