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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
2/29/2008 3:33 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA
Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If
you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports
Marketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the Sports
Marketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday,
normally by around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line
managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the
Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for
today’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action
Last week, we went 1-1, with Charlotte “pushing,” as the Bobcats
lost by one point in overtime. The Bulls won their game outright
for our winning selection. However, the resurgent 76ers couldn’t
get it done versus Orlando. Overall, the NBA Marketwatch is
still under water – but is climbing back to respectability.
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 7-10-1 = 41.2%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch 2/29/08 – Games to Watch
Sacramento Kings +9.5 over Dallas Mavericks
As our readers know, we sometimes need bad teams to do good
things against good teams. This matchup is shaping up to be one
of those “Pepto Bismol” games. It’s not that Sacramento is that
horrible; they are actually just below .500. However, Sacramento
is a very weak 9-21 on the road – while Dallas is tied with Utah
for the best record at home in the NBA this season!
Dallas is fighting for first place in their division and boasts
an impressive 24-3 record at home. So why do we “like”
Sacramento in this matchup? SportsInsights’ sports marketplace
statistics show that with only 30% of the bets landing on the
Kings, the line actually decreased from the opener of Sacramento
+9.5 to Sacramento +9.
This is an indicator of “smart money” betting on Sacramento
to stay close enough to Dallas – to cover the game. As usual,
we’ll join the “smart money” and take the Kings at a “recent
low” (they’ve lost three in a row) and “sell” the Mavs at a
“home high.”
Sacramento Kings +9.5
Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Toronto Raptors
At first glance, these teams look like they are headed in
opposite directions. Toronto has won 7 of its last 10 while Indy
has lost 7 of its last 10. Toronto is firmly established as a
playoff contender while Indiana has dropped into a tie for last
place in its division.
However, when you take a closer look, you can see that recent
performance has magnified the differences between these two
teams. That is, up until a few weeks ago, Indy was playing
better than .400 ball while Toronto was just barely above .500.
That makes us feel that getting double-digit points on Indy is a
good value.
This game falls into our “buy low, sell high” value category.
Let’s “buy” the Pacers at a “low” and “sell” the Raptors at a
“high.” With only 30% of the bets coming in on Indy, the line
increased from an opener of Indy +10 to Indy +10.5.
Indiana Pacers +10.5
Washington Wizards +5.5 over Chicago Bulls
SportsInsights’ premium analytical tools helped us to circle
this game. The sports marketplace shows that about 70% of the
bets are coming in on the lowly Chicago Bulls. The “Public” may
be fading the Wizards because of their recent poor play
(dragging them below .500!).
However, we love taking the Wizards plus the points against an
inferior Chicago Bull team (that is only above .400 ball due to
a win in their last outing)! As usual, we’ll “Bet Against the
Public” – and take the side of the sportsbooks.
Washington Wizards +5.5
Games to Watch: 7-10-1 = 41.2%
Sacramento Kings +9.5
Indiana Pacers +10.5
Washington Wizards +5.5
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.
Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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