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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
1/11/2008 4:45 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA
Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans
unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace. If
you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the
sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports
Marketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the Sports
Marketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday,
normally by around 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line
managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the
Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for
today’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition
Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action
In last Friday’s edition, we took Houston +4 and Minny +6.5.
Houston led most of the way and won outright. Sports bettors
love when their “investment” is a slam dunk! In our other play,
Minny stayed close and looked like they would cover with a few
minutes left in the game, but Denver pulled away at the end. In
“Games to Watch,” we went 1-1 to start the season.
One interesting tidbit from recent NBA action: the Boston
Celtics continue to pound the rest of the league and their
record stands at an impressive 29-4. They have outperformed to
such a degree that their record “against the spread” (“ATS”) is
a cool 21-11. However, the “sports marketplace” is “efficient”
and “catches up to things” – so that the Celtics have gone just
2-3 over their last five games ATS. This is one reason why
Sports Marketwatch stresses its philosophy of “value investing.”
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 1-1-0 = 50%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
NBA Sports Marketwatch 1/11/07 – Games to Watch
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
One sportsbook we spoke to says that “sharp” money on Washington
moved the line fairly early from Atlanta -3.5 to -3 and then to
-2.5. There is still a “3” at SportsInteraction, which we would
grab.
SportsInsights.com’s exclusive betting statistics verify this
observation. With only 33% of the bets on Washington, the line
moved in the opposite direction than we would have expected.
This is a big divisional match-up, pitting two teams against one
another that are only a-half-game apart from one another in the
standings. This should be a barn-burner of a game that goes to
the wire, so we love taking Washington plus the points.
Washington Wizards +3
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
After a slow start, Houston has won four games in a row and
seven of their last ten. Minnesota, on the other hand, continues
with its worst record in the NBA. Still, the point spread is a
huge equalizer and the Timberwolves are looking like a good
value at this point. Indeed, Minnesota won its last game
outright – its first win, in about two weeks. Even though the
win was against a weak Miami team, Minny looked good.
Some “smart money” is on Minnesota in tonight’s matchup. The
line opened at Houston -11.5, but with the bets coming in
heavily (almost 70%) on Houston, the line actually declined to
Houston -10.5. Take the double digit points and sell the Rockets
at a recent “high.” There’s still Minny +11 at SportsInteraction.
Minnesota Timberwolves +11
Seattle Supersonics vs. Dallas Mavericks
The public loves the first-place Mavericks over the lowly
Supersonics in this matchup. Dallas is currently receiving
almost 80% of the bets placed in this game. To the casual
observer, this makes sense. Who would want to back a lowly team
with a 9-26 record vs. a first place team with a 24-11 record?
Dallas is coming off of a huge win against first-place Detroit
and has won five in a row. On the other hand, Seattle has lost
five in a row. In this matchup, our readers are familiar with
our “contrarian goal” of seeking out value: we’ll buy Seattle at
a “low” and sell Dallas at a “high.”
Seattle has been a “live dog” for much of the season, with its
recent slide bringing its record “against the spread” (ATS)
below 50%. Even with its recent run, Seattle’s record ATS
remains below 50%. The high percentage of public bets on Dallas
has already given us 1 pt of additional value. We’ll take the 9
points for Seattle at home.
Seattle Supersonics +9
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this
week’s Games to Watch for the NBA.
Games to Watch (1-1-0)
Washington Wizards +3
Minnesota Timberwolves +11
Seattle Supersonics +9
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.
Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports
Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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