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Sports Marketwatch
March Madness Edition – Round 1 (Friday)
3/21/2008 11:01 AM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com Due to popular demand, SportsInsights
is pleased to bring our Members a March
Madness Edition of our popular Sports
Marketwatch publication. Come back and visit SportsInsights often;
we’ll be publishing a Marketwatch
daily during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Welcome to the Sports Marketwatch – March Madness Edition, where
SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.
If you want to know what is really happening on the sportsbook side, you now
have an all-access pass with Sports
Marketwatch!
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks
about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll look at what’s in store for the upcoming
NCAAB games.
Sports Marketplace – March Madness – Round 1 (Friday)
Recapping NCAA Tournament Action
We got off to a slow start in
Thursday’s early afternoon March Madness games, but got on the right track in
the evening. Belmont’s speed kept them in the game with
Duke the entire game, down to a last second shot and a one point loss! On the other hand, Oral Roberts got stomped
on by Pittsburgh and Portland St. couldn’t quite stay within
22.5 of Kansas.
2008 March Madness Games to Watch: 1-2 = 33.3%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
NBA Sports Marketwatch – Round 1 (Friday) – Games to Watch
Texas Arlington
+24.5 over Memphis
As mentioned in
SportsInsights.com’s March Madness article, Round One has seen the #1 and #2
Seeds go just 42% “against the spread” over the past five years. With the betting public “all over” the
almost-undefeated Memphis
team, the 25-point spread might be a little over-inflated.
Almost three out of every four
bets are coming in on Memphis
-24.5. Note that the line has actually
decreased to Memphis
-24.5 from its -25 opener. We’ll take
the side of the sportsbooks and “bet against” the public.
Texas Arlington
+24.5
American U +20 over Tennessee
Tennessee made a name for itself by defeating then-undefeated Memphis in a huge game
late in the season. The public saw that
game and looks like it is over-valuing Tennessee
to the tune of four-out-of-every-five bets coming in on Tennessee (when factoring in Teasers and
Parlays).
We’ll “sell” Tennessee
at a recent “high” and take American
U. plus the points. Note that Tennessee has actually come back down a bit
lately. After defeating Memphis
and running their record to 25-2, Tennessee
finished 5-2 over their last seven games, losing to solid, but NOT top 20
teams. Tennessee should win this game easily, but
may have an uphill climb against the 20 point spread.
American U. +20
Austin Peay +15.5 over Texas
SportsInsights.com’s sports
marketplace statistics highlight this game as a sign of “big money” and/or
“smart money” taking Austin Peay and the big points. The line opened at Austin Peay +16.5 but has
come down to +15.5 – even with an overwhelming percentage of bets on Texas.
A huge 80% of the bets are landing
on Texas, but
the line actually decreased. As usual,
we’ll tag along with the “smart money” and bet against the public.
Austin Peay +15.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of
SportsInsights.com analysis for the Games
to Watch for March Madness.
Games to Watch (1-2-0)
Texas Arlington
+24.5
American U. +20
Austin Peay +16
It should be another exciting NCAA
Tournament for the sports marketplace. Keep
Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest
real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back soon with a new
edition of the Sports Marketwatch – March
Madness Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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