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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
3/28/2008 4:15 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's
edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team
at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA
point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with
Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch
will be published weekly, on Friday’s, by 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are
pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace
– NBA Edition
The NBA MarketWatch went 1-2 last Friday,
with the Memphis “smart money/steam move” play being the only winner.
After several good weeks, a few bad weeks have dropped the
MarketWatch record to a sub-par 13-16. Ups and downs happen in any
investment, but searching for “value” in sports investing should keep us
positive in the long-run. Let’s hope to get the NBA MarketWatch
back on track.
2007-08 NBA Games to
Watch: 13-16-1 = 44.8%
*Source:
SportsInsights.com
Sports Marketwatch
3/28/08 – Games to Watch
Philadelphia 76ers
+ 3 over Phoenix Suns
Even thought the 76ers
have been playing better ball, they still don’t get much respect from
the general public. As a result, they appear under-valued. In this
match-up, the 76ers are receiving only about 20% of all bets. This has
moved the line in the direction of the Suns – from Philly +1.5 to Philly
+2.5. Sportsbook and SIA have +3’s available at the time of this
writing.
We like getting a “live
home dog” in a rejuvenated Philadelphia team. We’ll “bet against the
public” and take the home dog with an extra 1.5 points of line movement
value.
Philadelphia 76ers +3
Minnesota
Timberwolves +12.5 over San Antonio Spurs
At the beginning of the
season, Minnesota played the worst basketball in the league. They
remain a mediocre team but are no longer the league doormat. San
Antonio remains one of the league’s elite teams. As a result, the Spurs
are grabbing two-thirds of the bets. These kinds of biases
(long-standing “masters of the universes” and “league doormats”) create
opportunities for contrarian investors.
SportsInsights.com’s
exclusive sports marketplace statistics show the existence of “smart
money” getting down on Minny. The line opened at San Antonio -12.5 but
has moved down to -11.5 at some books – even with a decent majority of
bets on the Spurs. Some of the sports exchanges still have Minny +12.5
at reasonable “vig.”
Minnesota Timberwolves
+12.5
Milwaukee Bucks +7
over Orlando Magic
Here again, the line has
moved due to an overwhelming percentage of bets coming in on the
favorite. The line opened at Orlando -6 and moved fairly quickly to
Orlando -7. Orlando is capturing a huge 86% of the bets at the time of
writing this article.
Although Orlando is a
first-place team and Milwaukee a last-place team, this match-up finds
the Bucks at home, where they have been competitive. Milwaukee is
playing .500 ball at home – so the seven points looks like there could
be some value. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the Bucks as a
“live home dog.”
Milwaukee Bucks +7
Games to Watch:
13-16-1 = 44.8%
Philadelphia 76ers +3
Minnesota Timberwolves
+12.5
Milwaukee Bucks +7
It should be another
exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch
picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday
with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at
SportsInsights.com
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