Sports Marketwatch
NBA Playoff Edition
5/9/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of
the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights
gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace.
If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you
now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of
the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, normally by
5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about
which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a
look at what’s in store for upcoming NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA
Playoff Edition
Last weekend, Atlanta stayed tough with the Celtics and
forced a Game 7. Their outright win at home (they even had +8.5 points!) in
Game 6 led to a winning selection for the Sports MarketWatch – and nearly one of
the biggest upsets in recent playoff series history. Let’s see what contrarian
values SportsInsights’ statistics show this weekend.
2007-08 Playoffs 4-3 = 57.2%
2007-08 NBA Regular Season:
19-23-2 = 45.2%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch –
Playoff Games to Watch
Utah Jazz -4.5 over Los Angeles Lakers (Friday)
Our contacts at offshore books tell us that some early
sharps took Utah and moved the line slightly in that direction. Overall, the
public is still riding the high-flying Lakers, with almost 60% of the bets on
the LA.
The line opened at Utah -3.5 at home – and has moved to
Utah -5 at most sportsbooks. The line moved in this direction (favoring the
Utah Jazz more) even with 60% of the bets landing on the Lakers. This is a sign
that “big money” is taking Utah at home.
The Kobe Bryant-led Lakers have been playing great ball and
lead the series 2-0. However, as we have seen in these playoffs, home court
DOES mean something. We’ll “sell” the Lakers at a high and take the Jazz, just
like the sharps are doing. Look for Utah to get back into the series at home.
Utah -4.5 is still available at a few books.
Utah Jazz -4.5 Bet At Sports Interaction
Detroit Pistons +5 over Orlando Magic (Saturday)
With about 80% of the bets getting down on Orlando, there
is value on “betting against the public” and taking Detroit. The line opened at
Orlando -4.5, but the barrage of bets on Orlando extended the line to -5. By
tip-off, the line could be larger.
Detroit and Orlando were both first place teams during the
regular season. Detroit had a .720 winning percentage while Orlando had a .634
record. This is one reason we like Detroit. Orlando’s record at home wasn’t
much better than their road record. This is another reason we like Detroit.
Detroit won games one and two convincingly, while Orlando won game three at home
convincingly. We’ll look for Detroit to ** at least ** stay close in this game,
and perhaps “break serve” – to take a series lead. Let’s take Detroit and the
points.
Detroit Pistons +5
Games to Watch: 19-23-2 =
45.2%
Utah Jazz -4.5 Bet At Sports Interaction
Detroit Pistons +5
It should be another exciting
weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy
and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with
the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com