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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Playoff Edition
4/25/2008 1:00 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's
edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team
at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA
point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with
Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch
will be published weekly, on Friday’s, normally by 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are
pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming NBA games.
Sports Marketplace
– NBA Playoff Edition
The first games of the playoff series we
highlighted last week went the way of the favorites. As our readers
know, this is not what we had hoped for – although some of the teams
“the public hates” fared better during the week. Let’s look at “the
board” and see what contrarian values SportsInsights’ statistics show
this weekend.
2007-08 NBA Games to
Watch: 16-22-2 = 42.1%
*Source:
SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch
4/25/08 – Playoff Games to Watch
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 over Detroit Pistons
(Friday)
Philadelphia surprised Detroit in game one of the
series, coming from behind to grab an outright victory. Detroit won
game two handily and the public is looking for more of the same. Five
out of every six bets are landing on the Pistons and this has started to
move the line, which opened at Detroit -3.5 – to Detroit -4.5.
During the second half of the NBA season, the 76ers
have shown that they can play with anyone. The public, however,
remembers their recent history – when they were basement dwellers.
Overall, this creates value for the sharp sports investor and
sportsbooks.
We’ll “bet against the public” and take the side of
the sportsbooks. With the public pounding the Pistons, you can wait and
perhaps get more than the +4.5 on Philly.
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5
Sports Interaction
Denver Nuggets -1
over LA Lakers (Saturday)
Our oddsmaker friends –
and the early sports marketplace – are indicating that early “sharp
money” is taking the Nuggets in game three of this series. In early
“market action” -- a tiny 17% of the bets are landing on Denver, yet the
line moved from Denver -0 to Denver -1 (and Denver -1.5 at Cris).
The Lakers played
unbelievable ball the latter part of the season and streaked to the best
record in the Western Conference. The Lakers won both games 1 and 2
handily at home. The series now shifts to Denver – and the public is
looking for more of the same domination. We’ll join the sharp money
looking for Denver to make a stand at home –
and “bet against the
public.” We see some value by “selling the Lakers” who are flying
mighty high right now.
Denver Nuggets -1
Atlanta Hawks +8
over Boston Celtics (Saturday)
Similar to the
Denver-Lakers series, we have a “David and Goliath” story in this
series. We have the mighty Celtics against an Atlanta team that
finished below .500 for the season (.451)! Boston won games 1 and 2 of
the series by an average of more than 20 points – so the public sees
little reason for things to change.
In early “market action”
– an overwhelming percentage of bets (almost 95%!!) – is pounding the
Celtics. The Atlanta Hawks, did however, play well at home this season,
going 25-16. We are watching this line – and hope the line extends to
Atlanta +9 or even more. We are looking for value in this game as the
public forgets that the point spread is a great “equalizer.”
Atlanta Hawks +8
Games to Watch:
16-22-2 = 42.1%
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5
Sports Interaction
Denver Nuggets -1
Atlanta Hawks +8
It should be another
exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch
picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday
with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at
SportsInsights.com
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