Sports Marketwatch
NBA Playoff Edition
4/19/2008 10:11AM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of
the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights
gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace.
If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you
now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of
the Sports Marketwatch will be published weekly, on Friday’s, normally by
5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the
line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about
which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a
look at what’s in store for upcoming NBA games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA
Playoff Edition
The Rockets won and Miami pushed last Friday, for a
positive day 1-0-1 MarketWatch week. Year-to-date performance is still
nothing to write home about, but at least we’re closer to respectability. With
the NBA Playoffs coming up, the Sports MarketWatch is looking forward to
additional value in the NBA marketplace. Historically, games of national
attention and importance have more of a public following – and add to the edge
for sharp sports investors.
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch:
16-19-2 = 45.7%
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch 4/19/08
– Playoff Games to Watch
Washington Wizards +3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers
(Saturday)
This is a #4 versus a #5 seed match-up – and should be a
great series. The line opened at an appropriate line for a close match-up:
Cleveland -2.5 (Cleveland is home). Perhaps due to the “LeBron James” factor,
almost 70% of the bets are coming in on Cleveland.
Currently, most books are staying in the 2.5 to 3 point
spread range. However, there are some 3.5’s appearing. We’ll “bet against the
public” and take the 3.5 points in this potential dogfight of a game.
Washington Wizards +3.5
Toronto Raptors +6.5 over
Orlando Magic (Sunday)
A huge 80% of the bets are coming
in on Orlando. Orlando coasted into first place in their division while Toronto
finished the regular season at .500.
Orlando finished with a 25-16
home record while Toronto had a 16-25 road record. On the surface, the 6.5
points seems like a soft line. However, these are the types of games and “trap”
lines where there is value on the “other side!” The sportsbooks seem eager to
take action on Orlando -6.5 and are leaving the line steady even with the steady
barrage of public bets on Orlando.
We believe that there is some
smart (and big) money balancing the public action on Orlando. We’ll bet against
the public and take the side of the sportsbooks.
Toronto Raptors +7
Skybook
Denver Nuggets +8.5 over LA
Lakers (Sunday)
People are already talking about
a Lakers-Celtic final – but there’s a lot of basketball to be played before the
NBA Finals roll in. The Lakers finished with the best record in the Western
Conference. Partly due to their hot play near the end of the season – and
partly due to the public’s love of superstar athletes (as in Kobe Bryant) – the
Lakers are collecting almost 3 out of every 4 bets in game one of their series
with Denver.
With almost 75% of the bets
landing on the Lakers, the line actually decreased from the opener of Lakers -9
to -8. Our sportsbook contacts told us this game had some big bets coming in on
Denver. Our readers know this is our cue: we’ll join the “smart money” and “bet
against the public.” The Lakers might be the “best of the West” – but the point
spread is a great equalizer!
Denver Nuggets +8.5
Matchbook
Games to Watch: 16-19-2 =
45.7%
Washington Wizards +3.5
Toronto Raptors +7
Skybook
Denver Nuggets +8.5
Matchbook
It should be another exciting
weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy
and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive
Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with
the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com