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Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
4/11/2008 4:15 PM EST
By The Team at
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's
edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition, where the Team
at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA
point-spread marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really
happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with
Sports Marketwatch! The NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch
will be published weekly, on Friday’s, by 5PM, Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly
with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest
sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are
pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.
Sports Marketplace
– NBA Edition
The Knicks and 76ers both beat the spread last
Friday, for a good 2-0 MarketWatch week. Year-to-date
performance is still nothing to write home about, but at least we’re
closer to respectability. With the NBA Playoffs coming up, the Sports
MarketWatch is looking forward to additional value in the NBA
marketplace. Historically, games of national attention and importance
have more of a public following – and add to the edge for sharp sports
investors.
2007-08 NBA Games to
Watch: 15-19-1 = 44.1%
*Source:
SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch
4/11/08 – Games to Watch
With the regular season winding down, some of the
lines for games “seem weird” to some handicappers – as teams scramble
for playoff positioning, draft picks, and various other motivational
issues. The interest in the NBA sports betting marketplace is slightly
lower until the playoffs begin, so we will have a reduced number of
plays today.
Houston Rockets +3
over Phoenix Suns
The line opened at
Houston -1, but questions about Tracy McGrady (he’s expected to play for
Houston) as well as Houston forward Shane Battier have the public taking
Phoenix at a rate of almost 80%. At the time of writing, this game had
the highest number of bets in the NBA. Our oddsmaker contacts confirm
that this match-up is the big one for the night – and they alerted us to
circle this game.
The public’s pounding of
Phoenix has moved the line a huge four points. We’ll take Houston as a
truly “live dog.” The Rockets have a 29-10 home record (!!) and have a
lot of potential for sports investment value. We have an elite NBA
playoff team receiving 3 points at home – with both playoff implications
and pride – on the line. “Betting against the public” looks like a
quantifiable value in this game (along with potential overvalued injury
concerns).
Houston Rockets +3
Miami Heat +5 over
Memphis Grizzlies
This is a battle between
two of the league’s worst teams. Miami, by far, has the worst record in
the league. This kind of info (such as Miami’s .179 winning
percentage!) catches people’s attention. As a result, in this battle of
the basement dwellers, the public is jumping on Memphis.
Currently, Memphis is
gathering about 75% of the bets, and the line has moved from Miami +4 to
+5. The line looks like it might move to +5.5, but we’ll take the +5
that is generally available at the time of publication.
Note that Miami’s home
record is 8-31, while Memphis has a visiting record of 7-31. This game
could be a toss-up. We’ll “bet against the public” and take Miami plus
the points. Miami, like any team of professional athletes – has pride –
and will “perform” in front of their home crowd.
Miami Heat +5
Games to Watch:
15-19-1 = 44.1%
Houston Rockets +3
Miami Heat +5
It should be another
exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch
picks handy and your browser pointed to
SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our
exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday
with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at
SportsInsights.com
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