Sports Marketwatch
MLB Edition
5/12/2009  5:05 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
 
Welcome to the 2009 MLB Sports Marketwatch, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published twice weekly on Tuesday and Friday, around 5PM Eastern Time.
 
Sports Marketplace – MLB Edition
 
Last week, Marketwatch predicted that Friday's headlines would revolve around the return of Alex Rodriguez.  We were right in that regard, but wrong on the outcome, as A-Rod hit a 3-run blast in his first at-bat that provided all the offense the Yankees would need to beat the Orioles behind a resurgent CC Sabathia.  The complete game shutout at Camden Yards was exactly what the Yankees paid for, and CC made us pay, at least on this night, for betting against him.  We more than made up for this loss with a hit on the Giants in the second game, as Barry Zito stayed hot by outdueling Chad Billingsley.  San Francisco has been anemic behind Zito in particular this season, and the run support set him up nicely to earn his first win of the season over division rival Los Angeles.

Baseball can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The “plus odds” is a reason that MLB moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win – thus overvaluing winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally hit at less than 50%, but the “plus odds” payoff makes it a profitable investment.

2009 MLB Games to Watch: 14-5, 73.7%, +12.50 units
*Source: SportsInsights.com
 
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch

San Diego Padres +129 over Chicago Cubs

The Padres, losers of four of their last five games, head into Wrigley tonight in desperate need of momentum and a return to the form that saw them jump out to a division-leading 9-3 record to begin the season.  No one fits the bill better than their former Cy Young winner.  Jake Peavy was nearly traded to baseball's most tormented franchise in the offseason, and tonight he'll get a chance to show Chicago's players, coaches and fans exactly what they missed out on.  They should play close attention, as Peavy has given up only 2 runs and thrown 20 strikeouts in his last 15 innings and may well be available before this summer's trade deadline.  The Cubs have turned things around of late, going 7-3 in May after a putrid April.  Yet their lineup remains in flux; underperforming first baseman Derrek Lee may return tonight, but Aramis Ramirez is out again after dislocating a shoulder over the weekend. 

It speaks well of Cubs' starter Rich Harden that Chicago is such a heavy favorite tonight against the high-profile Peavy.  The boys from the north side are receiving 68% of moneyline bets, but instead of growing, the lines have shrunk.  CRIS opened with Chicago at -160, and the line now stands at -140.  Similar 15-20 point moves have occurred across the sports betting marketplace, and a number of Sports Insights Betting System plays have been triggered on San Diego, including a Smart Money play at CRIS (+9.28 units).  We'll follow the sharps on this one and look for the Padres to muster enough offense to get their ace another win.

San Diego Padres +129
 
Cincinnati Reds +176 over Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks will look to stop the bleeding behind their own ace, Dan Haren, tonight against the Reds.  They entered the season expecting to be in the thick of the division race, but after a month and a half they are already seven games behind .500 and on their second manager of the year.  Haren has been great this year, posting a 1.84 ERA and showcasing talent far and beyond that of Cincinnati starter Micah Owings.  The Diamondback hitters just haven't been playing along, providing him with such paltry run support that he only has a 3-3 record to show for his sparkling peripherals.  The Reds, meanwhile, boast a lineup full of young talent and have won four of their last five.  They exploded for 13 runs in the first game of the series and hope to continue their march toward St. Louis at the top of the NL Central.

Most likely due to the significant disparity in pitching, Arizona came out as early 2 to 1 favorites at both CRIS and Pinnacle.  The D'Backs are getting 57% of moneyline bets and even higher percentages of runline and parlay bets, but most lines have moved in the opposite direction.  Two Steam Moves have been triggered on Cincinnati from profitable sportsbooks, including one at Canbet (+9.5 units).  Let's play on the upstart Reds and hope this is the night Haren's numbers come back to Earth.

Cincinnati Reds +176
 

Games to Watch (14-5, +12.50 units)
Padres +129

Reds +176

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace.  Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.

Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com